TUI Shares Stalled at Key Moving Average as Cost Relief and Off-Season Initiatives Vie for Momentum
29.06.2026 - 18:54:41 | boerse-global.de
TUI's stock closed last week at €7.38, having failed almost exactly at the 200-day moving average of €7.67 — a technical rejection that leaves the shares roughly 22% below their 52-week high of €9.50 reached in February. The year-to-date loss stands at around 17%, though the equity has clawed back from an April trough of €6.11. The relative strength index of 58.4 suggests no overheating, leaving the door open for further gains — provided broader sentiment cooperates.
The market's caution persists despite genuine tailwinds on the cost side. Germany's travel security fund (DRSF) will halve its levy on tour operators from 0.5% to 0.25% of insured turnover starting 1 November, a move that directly improves TUI's liquidity and operating margins. Yet the reaction was muted: TUI had pushed for a complete suspension of fees, arguing the fund is adequately capitalised at around €1 billion following the FTI insolvency in summer 2024. The management views further mandatory contributions as an unnecessary drag on an already strained sector.
Operationally, brighter signals are emerging from the eastern Mediterranean. Demand for Turkey and Egypt is picking up as geopolitical tensions ease, with lower oil prices offering a dual benefit: improved booking appetite for high-margin flights to those destinations and reduced jet fuel costs. TUI has hedged 83% of its fuel requirements for the current summer season, insulating near-term profits from spot-price swings.
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To supplement the core business during weaker months, TUI Blue is launching a series of curated event programmes from late summer 2026. The concept targets hotels in Turkey and on Sylt with four multi-day formats — yoga retreats with mindfulness walks and spa treatments for adults, and adventure-nature camps for families featuring beach challenges, cooking workshops and stargazing. Participation requires an overnight stay and booking exclusively through TUI's own digital channels. The initiative is a direct response to the company's lowered EBIT guidance for fiscal 2026, now pegged at €1.1bn to €1.4bn, partly attributable to the ongoing Middle East conflict.
Another headwind comes from the EU's Entry/Exit System (EES), which took effect in April 2026 and has already slowed travel flows with more labour-intensive passport checks for non-EU nationals. Separately, the expiry of Germany's tank discount on 1 July may crimp household disposable income and temper late-summer booking momentum.
A sustained breakout above €7.67 is needed to put the February high of €9.50 back into play. Support around €7.30 will be tested in the coming sessions. TUI is attending the DIRK conference today, where management may offer more concrete commentary on the full-year profit range. Meanwhile, TUI River Cruises is expanding its winter programme for 2027, betting that cruise growth can help offset any shortfall if geopolitical uncertainty lingers.
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