TUI Shares Test Support While Analysts See Value in Cruise-Fueled Rebound
Published on 05/19/2026 at 04:23 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
TUI’s stock is trading dangerously close to its 52-week low of €6.15, having shed nearly 28% of its value since January. At Monday’s close of €6.44, the shares are now 18% below their 200-day moving average — a textbook signal that the downtrend remains intact. Yet a chorus of analysts from JPMorgan, Barclays and Deutsche Bank argue the sell-off has overshot the mark, pointing to a robust underlying business that is navigating geopolitical turbulence with a combination of fleet flexibility and strong cruise demand.
The market’s aversion stems primarily from the escalating Iran conflict, which has forced TUI to cancel flights and reroute vessels. Barclays estimated the geopolitical disruption cost the group roughly €40 million in one-off charges during its second fiscal quarter. That burden, along with elevated fuel costs, masked a more encouraging operational picture: adjusted operating losses narrowed to €188.3 million in the period, while quarterly revenue came in at around €3.7 billion, underscoring resilient customer appetite for travel. In the seasonally weaker first quarter — October through December — revenue had already climbed 15% to €4.3 billion, generating a small operating profit of €6 million.
TUI’s cruise division has become a strategic anchor in the storm. The temporary suspension of itineraries for Mein Schiff 4 and Mein Schiff 5 in the Persian Gulf has been offset by their redeployment to the Mediterranean, where high occupancy rates and strong average pricing are absorbing part of the extra cost. Looking further ahead, TUI Cruises is preparing to christen a new vessel, Mein Schiff Flow, in Trieste in June 2026. The company has already selected three godmothers from customer applications, betting that the premium travel segment will sustain its momentum into the medium term.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying TUI?
Meanwhile, the mainstream package-holiday business is sending mixed signals. TUI’s “Markets + Airline” segment has seen a roughly 7% year-on-year decline in advance bookings, but the pattern is shifting sharply toward last-minute reservations. That leaves the crucial summer season heavily dependent on short-notice purchasers — a cohort that will determine whether management can deliver on its full-year guidance. CEO Sebastian Ebel has reaffirmed the target of 25% growth in adjusted operating profit, targeting an EBIT range of €1.1 billion to €1.4 billion, while revenue is expected to rise at least 10% for the fiscal year.
Supporting the recovery case, JPMorgan has maintained an “Overweight” rating with a price target of €12.50, implying more than 90% upside from current levels. Deutsche Bank rates the stock a “Buy” at €10.50, and Barclays has reiterated an “Overweight” call with a €9.00 target. Bank of America also recommends buying, while Jefferies remains more cautious with a “Hold” stance. All eyes are on the €6.30 support level: a break below that threshold could trigger forced selling from knock-out products, whereas a stabilisation above it would be the first technical step toward reversing the slide.
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TUI Stock: New Analysis - 19 May
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