TUI Stands by Profit View but Abandons Revenue Target as Geopolitics Reshape Summer Bookings

TUI delivered broadly steady second-quarter numbers on Wednesday, yet the real story lies in what it chose to stop forecasting. The travel group maintained its full-year profit guidance but scrapped its revenue outlook, blaming an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment that is reshaping where – and when – customers book their holidays.

Operational resilience masked by one-offs

For the three months to the end of March 2026, revenue came in at €3.701 billion, virtually flat on a year earlier. Adjusting for currency swings, the top line edged higher. Adjusted EBIT improved by €18.5 million to minus €188.3 million, while the net loss narrowed to €281.8 million.

Those headline figures, however, conceal a €45 million burden from exceptional items. The largest chunk – €40 million – stemmed from the Iran conflict, covering repatriation costs and lost margins. A further €5 million was attributed to weather damage in Jamaica following Hurricane Melissa. Strip those out and the underlying operating performance would have looked considerably stronger.

Cruise segment sails ahead

One bright spot was the cruise division, which reported a 25.9% jump in adjusted EBIT for the first half to €163.5 million. Occupancy reached 93% despite the Iran disruption – and would have been 98% on a like-for-like basis. The average daily rate rose to €223, while available passenger days expanded by 10% to 2.9 million.

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The group is also pushing ahead with digital initiatives. Since May, TUI has been integrated into ChatGPT applications, allowing users to book hotels and experiences directly. A partnership with Google launched an AI-powered travel planning assistant offering real-time recommendations in the same month. A new loyalty programme has gone live in the Nordic countries, with plans to roll it out to additional markets by year-end.

Guidance pivot and the summer picture

TUI is sticking with its full-year adjusted EBIT target of €1.1 billion to €1.4 billion. But the decision to drop a specific revenue forecast marks a significant shift. Management now sees too much uncertainty in booking patterns to offer a reliable sales projection. Customers are deciding later, destinations are switching faster, and geopolitical risks are difficult to capture in a single number.

That uncertainty is already visible in the summer schedule. Total summer bookings stand at 7.9 million, with 3.2 million added since the last update – roughly half of available capacity is now sold. But the mix is shifting markedly. The eastern Mediterranean, including Greece and Turkey, is losing relative momentum, while Spain and the Balearics are seeing stronger demand. Nearly 50% of potential summer holidaymakers have yet to book.

Overall summer bookings are running 7% below the prior-year level, weighed down by the Iran conflict’s impact on Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt, as well as the Caribbean aftermath of the hurricane. TUI is responding by reallocating capacity away from Cyprus and Egypt towards Spain.

Market scepticism lingers

The share price ticked up 1.84% on Wednesday to €6.53, offering a modest reprieve after a punishing start to the year. Since January, the stock has lost 26.85% and trades roughly 31% below its 12-month high of €9.41. Technical indicators remain weak: the stock sits 17.37% below its 200-day moving average, and the relative strength index stands at 38.4, in bearish territory.

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On the financing side, Moody’s affirmed TUI’s Ba3 rating in February and raised the outlook to positive, citing the profit growth achieved in the 2025 financial year. That endorsement, however, has done little to shift the market’s bearish posture.

TUI now faces a delicate balancing act. It must demonstrate that the shift in demand towards western Mediterranean destinations can compensate for eastern losses, and that cost control can keep margins within the targeted range even as bookings become more last-minute. The next few weeks of summer sales will be critical in determining whether the profit target remains realistic – or whether the revenue view was only the first forecast to go.

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