Tungsten at $1,150, Molybdenum in the Pipeline: Almonty’s Two-Pronged Answer to a Supply Chain Earthquake
29.06.2026 - 13:56:55 | boerse-global.de
China’s iron grip on the global tungsten market has snapped. After Beijing imposed sweeping export controls in February 2025, shipments ground to a halt by early 2026. The price of ammonium paratungstate (APT) — a key processed form of the metal — has rocketed from a historical benchmark of $331 per tonne to as high as $1,150. For western defence, aerospace and semiconductor manufacturers, the scramble for alternatives has become desperate.
Almonty Industries, the Canadian miner with a freshly revived South Korean asset, finds itself in the crosshairs of this crisis. Its Sangdong mine, which restarted production in March 2026 after a 32-year hiatus, is now processing roughly 640,000 tonnes of ore annually and producing about 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. The ore grades average 0.51% tungsten trioxide — roughly three times the global average — giving the operation a built-in cost advantage. Management envisions a mine life exceeding 45 years, with a Phase 2 expansion in 2027 that would more than double capacity to 1.2 million tonnes of ore and 4,600 tonnes of concentrate. At full tilt, Sangdong alone could satisfy about 40% of non-Chinese tungsten demand.
The financial results reflect the uplift. In the first quarter of 2026, revenue surged 221% year-on-year to $25.4 million. Adjusted EBITDA swung from a loss of $2.4 million to a profit of $6.1 million, and operating cash flow reached $9.7 million. The market has taken notice: the stock is up more than 91% since the start of the year, though it currently trades at C$23.00 — 31% below its April 52-week high and roughly 14% under its 50-day moving average. The relative strength index sits at 40.9, hovering near oversold territory after a 13% drop in the past seven days.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Part of the recent softness may stem from a jumbo financing. In early June, Almonty placed $700 million in convertible notes carrying a 2.25% coupon and maturing in 2031. The offering was oversubscribed. Proceeds are partly being used for capped-call transactions designed to limit dilution, though the risk cannot be eliminated entirely.
Beyond tungsten, a second metal is coming into focus. A drilling programme is under way at Sangdong to evaluate its molybdenum deposit. About 37% of the planned 26 holes, totalling roughly 12,000 metres, have been completed, and grades so far match historical levels. South Korea recently declared a molybdenum supply emergency, urging private companies to build domestic sources. Almonty has already locked in a offtake agreement with SeAH M&S — the country’s largest molybdenum processor and the world’s second-largest molybdenum oxide smelter — for 100% of future production at a floor price of $19.00 per pound. All mining and environmental permits are in hand, and first output is expected by the end of 2026. The mine’s historically documented lifespan for molybdenum stands at 60 years, with annual capacity of around 5,600 tonnes.
External catalysts continue to tighten the supply squeeze. From 1 January 2027, the U.S. Department of Defense will be barred from purchasing tungsten from China, Russia, Iran or North Korea. China controls roughly 88% of global tungsten output, and its APT deliveries have already collapsed from 782 tonnes to 243 tonnes year-on-year. CICC, a Chinese investment bank, estimates the global supply deficit will exceed 17% of demand between 2026 and 2028. North American tungsten prices have climbed 76.6% over the past year, from $19.35 per kilogram in Q1 2025 to $34.17 in Q1 2026.
Against that backdrop, Almonty’s elevation to the Russell 1000 Growth and Russell 3000E benchmarks, effective today, guarantees forced buying from passive funds. The structural demand for shares arrives just as the technical picture looks bruised. Whether the stock recovers its lost highs will depend on the speed of the molybdenum resource estimate and the operational smoothness of the tungsten ramp-up. For now, the company sits at the intersection of a metals crisis and a strategic pivot — and investors have a rare window to watch the story unfold.
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