Tungsten’s Price Shock Rewrites Almonty’s Economics as US Defense Ban Accelerates Supply Shift
25.05.2026 - 17:32:04 | boerse-global.de
The arithmetic behind Almonty Industries’ recent surge is stark: production costs of roughly $110 per metric tonne unit (MTU) for its Sangdong mine in South Korea, against a spot tungsten price that has blown past $3,000. That theoretical gross margin of nearly $2,900 per MTU has grabbed the attention of investors, who have more than doubled the company’s stock since January in a rally that added another 4.2% on Monday alone.
The catalyst is a historic rally in ammonium paratungstate (APT), the benchmark tungsten product. Priced at $920 per MTU in Rotterdam at the close of 2025, APT has tripled in a matter of months to over $3,000. China, which accounts for roughly 80% of global tungsten output, has tightened export controls amid rising geopolitical tensions, leaving Western supply chains — particularly in defense, aerospace, and high-tech manufacturing — scrambling for alternatives.
That scramble is about to intensify. Starting in 2027, the United States plans to ban procurement of Chinese tungsten for the defense sector. Tungsten is critical for high-strength alloys used in armor, aerospace components, and heavy-industrial machinery, and the ban is forcing contractors to secure non-Chinese sources well ahead of the deadline. Almonty, which recently moved its corporate headquarters to Dillon, Montana, is positioning itself as a key alternative.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Its primary weapon is the Sangdong mine in South Korea, which holds proven reserves of 7.9 million tonnes of ore grading 0.45% tungsten trioxide. The deposit also contains indicated resources of 8.3 million tonnes and inferred resources of 52.8 million tonnes. With production costs estimated at around $110 per MTU, the mine operates at a margin that most commodity producers can only dream of at current spot prices. Meanwhile, the company plans to start production this year at its Gentung project in Montana.
Almonty has locked in long-term offtake agreements that provide a floor for revenue. A 15-year contract with Global Tungsten & Powders Corp. guarantees a minimum price of $235 per MTU — well below today’s spot market but offering protection should prices retreat. A separate 60-year molybdenum supply deal with SeAH M&S channels material to SpaceX. Critics note that the tungsten minimum price captures only a fraction of the current windfall, but the contracts de-risk the project for lenders and partners and ensure steady cash flow through the cycle.
Analysts are bullish. Cantor Fitzgerald and Bank of America both rate the stock a Buy, with price targets above $20 per share. On the Toronto Stock Exchange, Almonty shares changed hands at C$26.88, trading 71% above their 200-day moving average. The relative strength index stands at 74.5, signaling a technically overbought condition after Monday’s 4.2% gain. On Germany’s Tradegate exchange, the stock was quoted at €16.09 in subdued holiday trading.
Canaccord Genuity projects global tungsten demand will rise 47% to 210,000 tonnes by 2035, a pace that supply from outside China will struggle to match. The US ban from 2027 adds an extra layer of urgency. For Almonty, the critical inflection point remains the actual start of production at Sangdong. Once the first tungsten flows from South Korea, the market will see whether the current valuation — built on price projections and strategic hopes — can be underpinned by operational reality.
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