VanEck Semiconductor ETF Stages Comeback as Analysts Frame Selloff as a 'Mid-Cycle Reset'
Published on 07/20/2026 at 16:04 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF clawed back 1.10% on Monday to settle at €93.16, snapping a brutal stretch that had carved 17.12% off the fund’s record close of €111.18 set on June 30. The bounce narrowed the deficit from its peak to 16.21%, but the relief rally came against a backdrop of deep uncertainty — and a striking disconnect between market panic and analyst conviction.
At the heart of the turbulence lies an apparent paradox. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the fund’s largest holding, posted a 77% leap in year-over-year profit, yet its U.S.-listed shares slid 3% in pre-market trading. The culprit: TSMC simultaneously lifted its full-year capital expenditure forecast from a range of $52–$56 billion to $60–$64 billion, a move that traders read as a sign of rising costs rather than future growth. That same dynamic drove the broader sector lower, wiping $3.3 trillion in market capitalization globally from semiconductor stocks since June 22.
But a chorus of sell-side strategists is pushing back. JPMorgan is urging clients to treat the recent rout as a buying opportunity, labeling it a “mid-cycle reset” and sticking to ambitious 12-month price targets on names like Nvidia and Micron. UBS projects a 92% operating profit surge for companies in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index this year, followed by another 40% gain in 2025. Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, UBS’s global equity chief, argues that demand for AI computing power continues to outstrip supply and that supply-chain bottlenecks will persist. Barclays echoes the sentiment, describing the selloff as “passive trimming rather than aggressive panic” — portfolio rebalancing, not a flight from the sector.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF?
Not all markets are reacting alike. Asian chip stocks have been hit significantly harder. South Korea’s Kospi index tumbled more than 4% on July 20 to 6,525 points, far from its annual high of 9,387. Samsung Electronics has cratered 34% from its 2024 peak, SK Hynix has shed 40%, and Japan’s Kioxia is in freefall, destroying billions in value. The divergence highlights a geographic split in sentiment that the fund cannot escape — its global mandate means it is exposed to both the relative calm of U.S. analysts and the sharper pain in Asia.
Underlying the volatility is a deepening split within the chip industry itself. On one side, AI-infrastructure demand is exploding; on the other, a memory-chip crisis is unfolding alongside what IDC calls the steepest global smartphone market decline on record. Chipmakers in the fund serve these two opposing demand pools, and the tension between them is likely to fuel continued swings — even as bargain hunters step in.
The fund’s longer-term numbers underscore how extreme the prior rally was. Even after the recent drawdown, the ETF is still up 74.88% year-to-date and 124.24% over 12 months. Its annualized 30-day volatility stands at 59.76%, a measure that captures the jittery mood. The relative strength index has recovered to 43.4 from 41.9 last Friday, keeping it in neutral territory — neither oversold nor overbought — after shaking off the excesses of the earlier rally. The ETF currently trades below its 50-day moving average of €97.27 but well above the 200-day average of €68.06.
All eyes now turn to upcoming earnings from the major cloud and AI infrastructure providers. Their capital spending plans will offer the clearest signal on whether the AI investment thesis remains intact. If big tech keeps writing large checks for data centers, chip demand should stay buoyant; a slowdown would validate the market’s creeping unease. For now, the bulls and the bears are both pointing to the same set of facts — and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF is caught squarely in the middle.
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