Volkswagen’s €1.5 Billion Bosch Alliance Unravels; Everllence Deal Offers €7.4 Billion Reprieve
30.06.2026 - 15:16:37 | boerse-global.de
Volkswagen is preparing to pull the plug on its four-year, €1.5 billion development partnership with Bosch for automated driving, according to media reports. The so-called Automated Driving Alliance, launched in 2022 with the goal of producing scalable software for driver-assistance and autonomous functions, has failed to deliver competitive technology, internal assessments suggest. Neither Bosch nor Volkswagen’s software subsidiary Cariad would comment on the reports, offering only a joint statement that such partnerships are “regularly reviewed strategically and technologically.”
The collapse of the alliance — reported by Bild and cited by Reuters and Tagesschau — marks a stark reversal. As recently as August 2025, Volkswagen had described the venture as a key development path, with Level-2 and Level-3 software due for series production by mid-2026. Now, according to Reuters, the carmaker is already hunting for a replacement partner and plans to buy in hardware and software rather than develop them in-house. A contract could be signed by September. The shift in strategy leaves investors guessing whether Volkswagen will ultimately control its own software destiny or become a buyer of technology.
Against this backdrop, the stock is trading near its 52-week low. Shares closed at €70.52 on Tuesday, just 0.54% above the year’s trough of €70.14. The year-to-date decline has reached 33.53%, and the relative strength index has fallen to 19.3 — deep in oversold territory. Analysts are taking notice. Jefferies cut its price target to €120 from €130 on June 29 after a company conference, though it maintained a Buy rating. Analyst Philippe Houchois pointed to Volkswagen’s ongoing restructuring and its growing reliance on the European market. UBS remains Neutral with a €90 target; analyst Patrick Hummel highlighted that the state of Lower Saxony and labour representatives have blocked plant closures, prolonging the turnaround.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Volkswagen?
Operational weakness is compounding the software woes. In the first quarter of 2026, revenue slipped to €75.7 billion from €77.6 billion a year earlier, while operating profit dropped 14.3% to €2.5 billion. The margin shrank to 3.3%. Volkswagen blamed US tariffs, special effects, and declining sales in China and North America. For the full year, management has projected revenue growth of 0–3% and an operating margin of 4.0–5.5% — a marked improvement from Q1, but contingent on cost cuts holding and European demand stabilising.
One potential bright spot is the planned sale of a majority stake in battery subsidiary Everllence. On June 24, Volkswagen signed an exclusive agreement to sell 51% to Bain Capital for roughly €7.4 billion, while retaining a 49% stake. The deal is still subject to consultations with French works councils and regulatory approvals, with all conditions expected to be fulfilled by the end of 2026. Jefferies sees the transaction as unlocking strategic value that the current share price does not reflect.
For now, the biggest question mark hanging over Volkswagen’s valuation remains its software strategy. Until the company officially confirms or denies the end of the Bosch alliance — and clarifies whether it will buy or build its next-generation platform — investors are left weighing a €1.5 billion misstep against a potential €7.4 billion windfall. The next quarterly report will offer the first concrete update on both fronts.
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Volkswagen Stock: New Analysis - 30 June
Fresh Volkswagen information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
