With a Pentagon Ban Looming and a Japanese Supply Squeeze, Almonty’s Tungsten Gamble Enters Its Most Critical Phase
Published on 06/23/2026 at 07:48 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Two hard deadlines are now converging on Almonty Industries, and both revolve around the same strategic metal: tungsten. The first comes from Japan, where chipmakers face a scarcity of tungsten hexafluoride by July 2026. The second arrives from Washington in January 2027, when the Pentagon will ban any defense contractor from buying Chinese or Russian tungsten. Almonty, with its Sangdong mine in South Korea now in commercial production and a newly acquired project in Montana, is racing to fill the gap that neither deadline was designed to create.
The market has already placed its bet. Almonty’s shares trade at C$26.96, a 460% gain over the past twelve months and roughly double since the start of 2026. The stock’s annualized 30-day volatility hovers at 97%, making sharp swings a near-certainty. Yet the company’s market capitalization of €4.68 billion reflects investor conviction that a mine with a 45-year-plus lifespan and the capacity to supply roughly 40% of non-Chinese tungsten demand is an asset worth the ride.
The Two Deadlines That Define the Timeline
Peking’s decision to slash tungsten exports in late 2025, retaliation for US tariffs, created the first crack. Since January 2026, only 15 state?authorized companies can ship tungsten — and Beijing controls the quantities, timing, and recipients. Japanese chemical giants Showa Denko Kanto and Central Glass have already warned Samsung, SK Hynix and DB HiTek that their tungsten hexafluoride stocks, an irreplaceable etching gas for 3- to 7?nanometer chips, could run critically low by July. Japan covers roughly 25% of global supply, so the ripple effect is immediate.
The second deadline is a hard stop from the US Department of Defense. Under DFARS clause 252.225?7052, defense contractors will be barred from using tungsten sourced, refined, or processed in China or Russia starting January 2027. The problem is stark: the United States has not mined tungsten commercially since 2015. Almonty has already signed a binding offtake deal with Tungsten Parts Wyoming for at least 40 metric tons of tungsten oxide per month — feedstock for ammunition, drones, and rockets.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
A $800 Million Bet on Sangdong
The company’s primary weapon is Sangdong, the South Korean flagship that entered commercial production in March 2026. First?quarter revenue surged 221% to $25.4 million, while cash on hand stood at $259.9 million and working capital at $169.5 million. To accelerate the ramp, Almonty placed $800 million in convertible notes in early June — a 2.25% coupon due 2031 — and saw demand exceed supply. Underwriters exercised their full over?allotment, adding $100 million to the original volume. Net proceeds come to roughly $772.7 million, of which about $543 million will go to working capital and general corporate purposes; the rest will flow directly into Sangdong.
Phase 1 of the mine processes 640,000 tonnes of ore annually. Phase 2, slated for 2027, will double that to 1.2 million tonnes. The benchmark price for ammonium paratungstate in Rotterdam has already responded to the supply vacuum, climbing from around $920 per metric tonne unit twelve months ago to a peak of $3,185, settling recently near $3,040.
Beyond Tungsten: Montana and Molybdenum
Almonty’s first US operation came together with the completed acquisition of the Gentung Browns Lake Tungsten Project in Beaverhead County, Montana. The deposit contains 7.53 million tonnes at 0.315% tungsten trioxide, with planned annual output of about 140,000 metric tonne units. First production is targeted for the second half of 2026 — just ahead of the Pentagon’s January deadline.
Meanwhile, Sangdong is evolving into a dual?metal hub. Almonty is drilling at the adjacent Sangdong molybdenum project, where 26 holes over roughly 12,000 metres are planned; 37% have been completed, and grades so far match historical results. An offtake agreement with SeAH, one of South Korea’s largest industrial conglomerates, locks in a buyer. Molybdenum prices have climbed about 23.5% over the past year, giving the project an additional tailwind.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The Bearish Case and Technical Crossroads
Skeptics point to the mismatch between ambition and profitability. Almonty reported a net loss of roughly C$132 million on revenue of just C$50 million (the period is not specified in the company’s disclosures) and is not expected to post positive earnings for at least three years. That prolonged cash burn leaves the stock vulnerable to the same 97% volatility that rewards momentum traders. The shares currently sit about 19% below their 52?week high of C$33.35, and the 50?day moving average at C$27.25 presents an immediate hurdle. A clean break above resistance near C$27.50 could open a path toward C$35, but failure risks a retest of the 200?day line at C$17.70.
A production update is due in the week starting June 22, and the stock’s inclusion in the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indexes on June 29 will force institutional funds to take notice. Whether Sangdong and Montana hit their marks will determine if the distance from the April peak widens or narrows.
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