Xiaomi Bets Big on Extended-Range EVs and Record Buybacks as Goldman Warns of 50% Profit Collapse
12.06.2026 - 16:05:41 | boerse-global.de
Xiaomi is hurtling in two directions at once. The Chinese tech giant has secured regulatory approval to enter the extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) market and is splurging on a massive share buyback, yet Goldman Sachs warns that the second-quarter earnings report could show a 50% slump in adjusted net profit. The stock, trading at €2.88, sits barely above a 52-week low of €2.82, having shed 36% since the start of the year and more than half its value over the past twelve months.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has cleared Xiaomi’s automotive unit to produce EREVs — a critical expansion beyond the pure-electric SU7 sedan and YU7 SUV. The first model, codenamed “Kunlun N3”, will launch under a new sub-brand called Skynomad aimed at family-oriented SUVs. Equipped with a 1.5-litre range extender, the vehicle promises a pure-electric range of 400 to 500 kilometres and a combined range of around 1,500 kilometres. A public comment period on the submission runs until 17 June before final approval. Market launch is slated for the second half of 2026. Xiaomi is pricing the Skynomad aggressively at roughly 200,000 yuan, undercutting established EREV players like Li Auto and Aito, whose models typically start above 250,000 yuan.
That strategy carries risk. The EREV segment is cooling fast: wholesale volumes in May slumped nearly 25% — the steepest monthly drop in five years — and segment market share fell to 7.0%. Even segment leader Li Auto saw deliveries of its flagship L9 tumble 74% year-on-year in the first four months of 2026. Xiaomi’s broader automotive ambitions also hinge on an ambitious delivery target of 550,000 units for 2026, a 34% increase over 2025. But in the first five months of the year, it delivered only 150,317 vehicles, a modest 13.5% year-on-year gain, and May’s tally of 32,759 units was down roughly 11% from April. The company plans four new models for 2026: an updated SU7 with 902 kilometres of range, a SU7 Executive Edition, and two EREV SUVs in five- and seven-seat configurations.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Xiaomi?
On the technology front, Xiaomi is pressing ahead with a sweeping software and AI overhaul. Its proprietary HyperOS 4, set to debut in August, will replace the decade-old MIUI interface. Built on Flutter and Rust, the new operating system promises leaner, more secure code and on-device AI tools for image editing and transcription. The company also demonstrated a robotic charging arm that automatically plugs into an electric vehicle. Xiaomi is channelling more than 16 billion yuan into research and development in 2026, and has already allocated 80 out of a planned 100 trillion tokens for AI model training.
The weight of these investments, however, is weighing on short-term profitability. Goldman Sachs analysts forecast only a 1% year-on-year revenue increase for the second quarter of 2026, and excluding the electric-vehicle and AI segments, revenue is expected to fall 9%. More jarringly, adjusted net profit is seen halving to 5.4 billion yuan. Despite that outlook, Goldman maintains a “Buy” rating, signalling confidence in Xiaomi’s long-term trajectory.
The company is not waiting passively. After the stock touched its year low on Thursday, management purchased 7.8 million shares for roughly 202 million Hong Kong dollars as part of a buyback programme that can reach 20 billion Hong Kong dollars. The relative strength index is at 30.6, hovering just above oversold territory. Meanwhile, Xiaomi is also diversifying into lifestyle products — a crowdfunding campaign on 17 June will include its first portable Mijia espresso machine, underscoring the breadth of its business model.
Whether the buyback and the EREV push can arrest the stock’s slide will depend on two things: closing the delivery gap and seeing the hybrid-EV market recover by the time the Skynomad reaches showrooms. If Goldman’s profit warning proves accurate, the support at €2.82 could be severely tested.
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