Xiaomi’s Balancing Act: Buybacks and EV Ambitions Collide With a Stubborn Downtrend
Published on 07/26/2026 at 14:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Xiaomi’s stock is staging a recovery, but the path ahead remains littered with technical hurdles and operational challenges. After plumbing a 52-week low of €2.34 in late June, the shares have clawed back roughly 28 percent to trade near €3.00 — a modest 0.17 percent gain in European trading on Friday. Yet the numbers tell a sobering story: over the past twelve months, the equity remains down by more than 31 percent, and the broader downtrend is far from broken.
The chart offers a mixed picture. The stock now sits above its 50-day moving average of €2.92, providing a short-term floor. The Relative Strength Index reads 56.6, squarely in neutral territory. But the 200-day line looms at €3.77 — a formidable resistance level that has not been breached. Until that barrier falls, analysts caution that the recovery is merely a bounce within a longer bearish channel.
Buyback Machine Keeps Humming
Management is signaling confidence through action. Between early June and mid-July, Xiaomi executed fourteen tranches of share repurchases, buying back approximately 79.8 million shares — or 0.31 percent of total outstanding equity — at prices declining from HK$28.65 to HK$25.82 per share.
The buyback is operating under a mandate approved in June that authorizes the repurchase of up to 2.58 billion shares. A lock-up period restricting new share issuance runs until August 14, effectively covering the entirety of the coming trading week. The program is hardly new: Bloomberg reported as far back as January that Xiaomi was buying back stock nearly daily, spending the equivalent of more than HK$3.2 billion in a single month — the heaviest pace in over two years.
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Still, the company stresses that neither the timing nor the scale of future purchases is guaranteed. The buyback is a familiar tool, but it has yet to reverse the stock’s broader slide.
The Real Story Is in Beijing
While the buyback grabs headlines, the real catalyst for Xiaomi’s next leg lies in its electric-vehicle operations. The company is racing to scale production at its Beijing Yizhuang plant, where the third phase of expansion is underway. With a planned annual capacity of 450,000 vehicles, the facility is expected to underpin output of the SU7 sedan and the newer YU7 SUV.
The targets are ambitious. After delivering roughly 412,000 vehicles in 2025, Xiaomi has set a goal of 550,000 units for 2026 — a jump of more than 33 percent. In the first half of 2026, the EV division handed over 185,055 cars, representing 17.18 percent year-over-year growth. To hit the full-year target, monthly deliveries will need to accelerate sharply in the second half.
A new model could provide the spark. Xiaomi EV has unveiled the “Sky Nomad,” an extended-range SUV slated for the second half of 2026. It will go head-to-head with Li Auto and Huawei-backed Aito, two formidable competitors in China’s crowded EV market.
Analysts see the factory’s ability to clear orders while building profitability as the single most important factor for the stock in the coming months. More vehicles mean more revenue, but they also demand heavy capital outlays in a capital-intensive business. Whether Xiaomi can manage both simultaneously will only become clear when it reports second-quarter results, expected around August 20.
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Divergent Views on Wall Street
The analyst community is split. Goldman Sachs recently reiterated a Buy rating, pointing to progress in robotics — including a higher operational success rate for humanoid robots in Xiaomi’s own factory and the new “Xiaomi-Robotics-U0” model. Other houses remain cautious, warning that rising memory-chip prices continue to squeeze margins in the smartphone business, which remains Xiaomi’s core profit engine.
For the week ahead, traders will watch three factors: the pace of the buyback, monthly delivery data from the China Passenger Car Association, and the mood in the Hang Seng Index. A sustained breakout above the 200-day moving average at €3.77 would signal a genuine trend reversal. Until then, Xiaomi remains caught between a short-term recovery and a long-term downtrend that has yet to loosen its grip.
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