XRP's $1.14 Spike Runs Into Senate Calendar as ETF Flows Defy Price Weakness
Published on 07/04/2026 at 11:24 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
XRP traders saw a fleeting burst of momentum on July 3 when the token jumped 5 percent to $1.14, breaking through the $1.10 barrier and triggering a short squeeze. The session generated $1.7 billion in trading volume and pushed the market capitalisation to roughly $71 billion — the highest level in three days. Yet the rally has since cooled, with XRP changing hands at $1.09 as of the weekend, up 3.25 percent on the day and 4.24 percent for the week, though the monthly picture remains grim at a 10 percent loss.
The political catalyst that many hoped would sustain the uptrend has been delayed. The CLARITY Act, which would classify XRP as a commodity rather than a security, missed its self-imposed July 4 deadline. The Senate is in recess until July 13, and leadership plans to prioritise a defence bill in the first week back, pushing the vote to late July or early August. The legislation requires 60 votes, meaning roughly seven Democrats must cross the aisle — a hurdle complicated by an ethics clause tied to President Trump’s personal crypto holdings. When a committee vote advanced the bill on May 14, XRP jumped 4.5 percent to $1.49, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to legislative progress.
While price action stagnates, institutional demand signals a different story. Spot XRP ETFs have now recorded eight straight weeks of net inflows. Last week alone brought in $22.99 million, with Bitwise leading on June 26 with $11.18 million. On July 2, flows amounted to $6.55 million, reversing two small outflows. The seven active XRP funds have accumulated $1.48 billion since the first product launched in November 2025 and now hold nearly $1 billion in assets under management — with not a single day of net outflows last week. This contrasts sharply with Bitcoin ETFs, which saw $444.5 million exit in a single session when BTC dipped below $60,000. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs fully exited its XRP ETF positions in the first quarter of 2026, selling stakes worth nearly $154 million at the end of 2025, though the broader fund flows suggest other institutions are stepping in.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?
On-chain metrics paint a mixed but potentially bullish picture. The 30-day Market-Value-to-Realized-Value ratio stands at minus 45 percent, while the 365-day MVRV sits at minus 47 percent — together the deepest underwater reading in 12 years. Historically, such extreme bearish positioning has preceded recovery rallies as selling pressure exhausts itself. The Network-Value-to-Transactions ratio surged 471 percent in 24 hours on July 3 to 194.71, hinting at a growing divergence between price and network usage. At the same time, net wallet flows turned negative as large amounts of XRP left exchanges — a pattern typical of whale accumulation last seen in July 2025. However, the Coin-Days-Destroyed metric posted its biggest spike since April 2026, indicating that some long-term holders are moving or selling tokens. On the network side, the XRP Ledger saw nearly 5,000 new wallets created in a single day at the end of June, the strongest growth in three months, and positive online sentiment has climbed to a 3.7-to-1 ratio over negative comments — its highest in the same period.
Technically, XRP remains trapped between key levels. The Relative Strength Index sits at 42.9, neutral territory. The token is trading 10.5 percent below its 50-day moving average and 27 percent below the 200-day line at $1.49 — a stark reminder of the downtrend’s grip. A dense support zone between $1.00 and $1.06 has so far prevented a deeper slide, with the 52-week low of $1.01 set on June 26 just 7 percent below current prices. A daily close below the psychological $1 mark could open the door to $0.80. Meanwhile, resistance clusters at $1.18 to $1.20, limiting any near-term upside. Standard Chartered recently slashed its year-end 2026 target from $8.00 to $2.80 after the February sell-off, though it left its 2030 forecast unchanged at $28.00.
Ripple’s own actions add another layer: on July 1, the company executed its routine monthly escrow release of 1 billion XRP, immediately re-locking 700 million — 70 percent — back into escrow. On the ledger side, the x402 protocol has driven nearly 1 million AI-powered transactions, creating a mildly deflationary effect through the network’s fee-burning mechanism. With the Senate returning on July 13 and the CLARITY Act vote now expected in late July or early August, XRP’s near-term trajectory hinges on whether political progress can re-ignite the momentum that the short squeeze briefly delivered. Until then, the token remains caught between robust institutional inflows and a stubbornly bearish technical setup.
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