XRP's Conflicting Currents: ETF Accumulation Masks Steep Decline in Network Engagement
Published on 07/12/2026 at 06:43 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
XRP has managed to cling to the $1.09 level, but the forces propping it up look increasingly at odds with one another. On one side, institutional investors continue to build positions through regulated exchange-traded funds, pushing the combined assets under management for US spot XRP ETFs to roughly $1 billion. On the other, the foundational health of the XRP Ledger is deteriorating at a pace not seen in months, with active addresses and new wallet creation plumbing depths that call into question the token's organic demand.
The divergence is stark. According to data from Santiment, the number of daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger slid to just 25,350 — the second-lowest reading of the year. New wallet creation fared even worse, dropping to a mere 2,130, a figure last seen in November 2024. The decline was not abrupt; it followed a steady erosion that began after a brief period of strength in early June. A short-lived recovery around June 15, driven by buyers stepping in during a price dip, turned out to be a false dawn. The bounce in active addresses evaporated almost as quickly as it appeared, and network engagement resumed its slide.
Analysts see the June move as a reshuffling of existing holders rather than a genuine influx of new participants. The data on wallet creation supports that view: during the rally, new addresses barely budged. "It was old hands rotating positions, not fresh money entering the ecosystem," one observer noted.
While the blockchain's organic activity is wilting, the institutional channel is following a different script. Seven spot XRP ETFs are now trading in the US, collectively holding 964.5 million tokens. Flows into these products had been positive every week from early May through the end of June, pulling in a cumulative $196 million. That streak snapped in the week ending July 10, when net outflows of $7.18 million were recorded. The amount is modest relative to the prior inflows, but it marked a clear change in direction. Daily inflows shriveled to just $107,000 by July 10, and total AUM skidded below the $1 billion threshold, adding to the sense of cooling institutional appetite.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?
The derivatives market is also signaling a retreat. Open interest for XRP futures on Binance fell from above $500 million in mid-June to $399 million by July 10. Long liquidations surged 94% week-on-week, indicating that leveraged positions are being unwound aggressively. Interestingly, spot trading volumes on Binance picked up between July 4 and July 8 even as derivatives activity shrank, suggesting capital rotated from futures to the cash market — but not enough to reverse the broader slide in engagement.
Technical conditions reinforce the caution. XRP is trading below all three key moving averages: 6.95% under the 50-day line at $1.17, 25.26% below the 200-day at $1.46, and well shy of the 100-day at $1.28. This is a textbook bearish alignment. The token has attempted to break above the 50-day level three times since May, each attempt ending at a lower high than the last. The current price sits just 8% above the year's low of $1.01, hit on June 26, while the 52-week high of $3.65 from July 2025 remains a distant 70% away. The relative strength index at 44 points to a market in neutral territory — neither oversold nor overbought, but simply waiting.
Not every on-chain metric is flashing red. Transaction counts edged up 3% to 4% over the past week and month, although they remain 21% below the three-month average. The NVT ratio, a measure of valuation relative to network activity, has eased, hinting that the decline in usage may be stabilizing rather than accelerating.
XRP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Chartists identify $1.15 as a crucial resistance level. A clean break above that could open the path to $1.20–$1.25. On the downside, the zone around $1.07 is seen as a make-or-break support floor.
For the second half of the year, the central question is whether institutional inflows can sustain the token's price while the native network languishes. Potential catalysts such as the RLUSD stablecoin, tokenized real-world assets, and new lending features on the XRP Ledger have been floated as possible drivers of renewed activity. But for now, the market remains in a holding pattern — waiting for a catalyst powerful enough to end the quietest stretch of the year.
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