XRP’s Contradiction: Strong Fundamentals Meet Short-Term Selling Pressure

As 2025 draws to a close, XRP presents a market conundrum. On one side, a convergence of regulatory clarity, new investment products, and ecosystem expansion paints the most robust fundamental picture in years. On the other, its price remains mired in a correction, struggling to establish a definitive bottom. This analysis explores the forces behind this divergence.

Currently trading near $1.85, XRP hovers just above its 52-week low of $1.81. The asset has declined approximately 16% over the past 30 days, extending the corrective phase that began in the summer.

From a chart perspective, the $1.80-$1.85 zone is critical, acting as a key support level. The price has decisively broken below its 50-day moving average, situated at $2.06. A 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 28.8 indicates deeply oversold conditions. While this statistically raises the odds of a near-term bounce, it does not in itself signal a broader trend reversal.

Initial resistance is firmly established between $2.00 and $2.05. A sustained breakout above this threshold is required to meaningfully weaken the current bearish structure.

Macroeconomic factors are adding further pressure. Speculation about the unwinding of the Yen carry trade has intensified following signals from the Bank of Japan about potential rate hikes, which pushed 10-year government bond yields toward 2.6%. Historically, XRP has shown an inverse correlation to these yields; rising rates in Japan consequently increase selling pressure on riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

On-Chain Data Reveals a Clash of Narratives

A look at blockchain activity presents a mixed story of immediate weakness against a backdrop of structural strength.

Whale Distribution and Exchange Inflows

A shift from accumulation to distribution among large XRP holders has been evident since mid-December. Inflows to centralized exchanges, particularly Binance, have risen. The highest daily inflow for the month was recorded on December 19, with 116 million XRP moving to exchanges.

Aggregate data suggests that over the past four weeks, large addresses have released approximately 1.4 billion tokens into the market. This increased liquidity is meeting buy-side interest around the $2.00 level, explaining the persistent difficulty in reclaiming that price point.

Countervailing Institutional Demand via ETFs

Contrasting this selling pressure is growing institutional demand through regulated channels. Since their launch in November 2025, spot XRP ETFs from providers like Canary Capital and Bitwise have attracted net inflows exceeding $1.25 billion.

This creates a clear tension:
* Short-term: Selling pressure from whales and elevated exchange inflows.
* Medium-term: Potential supply absorption through consistent ETF purchases.
* Structural: Greater integration of XRP into regulated financial pathways.

This dynamic supports the view that the current price weakness is more cyclical than fundamental, even as it caps near-term upside.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?

Sustained Network Utility

Regardless of price action, activity on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) remains healthy. Daily transactions are stabilizing around 900,000, indicating that XRP continues to be used for payments and applications within its network, not solely for speculation.

Ecosystem Expansion: Stablecoins and Strategic Moves

Throughout 2025, Ripple has advanced initiatives to deepen XRP's utility within traditional finance.

The RLUSD Stablecoin Catalyst

A central component is the USD-pegged stablecoin, RLUSD. By late December 2025, its market capitalization reached approximately $1.3 billion. The growth of RLUSD is driving higher on-chain volumes and fostering the development of a DeFi ecosystem on the XRPL.

The sector for tokenized real-world assets (RWA) is particularly dynamic. The value of assets represented on the ledger grew by about 17% in December alone, enhancing the network's relevance for institutional and corporate applications.

Infrastructure Strengthening Through Acquisitions

To bolster its infrastructure, Ripple completed several significant acquisitions in 2025. These include the roughly $1 billion purchase of GTreasury and the acquisition of Hidden Road. The strategic goal is to embed XRP more deeply into corporate treasury and financial workflows, creating additional real-world use cases.

Regulatory Landscape: A Watershed Year

The regulatory environment for XRP has improved markedly in 2025.

National Trust Bank Charter

A pivotal development came in December 2025 when Ripple received a conditional national trust bank charter from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). This allows the company to offer regulated custody services in the United States and further integrate XRP into the banking system.

This milestone follows the resolution of the long-running legal dispute with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the summer of 2025. Ripple paid a civil penalty of $125 million—significantly less than initially sought. Most importantly, the legal overhang that weighed on the asset for years has been largely removed, providing institutional investors with clearer regulatory guidelines.

The Path Into 2026

The outlook heading into the new year is bifurcated. The short-term trend is dominated by selling pressure and rejection at the $2.00 level. The medium-term perspective, however, is bolstered by consistent ETF inflows, RLUSD growth, and the new banking charter.

Two price levels will be crucial for early 2026. If support around $1.80 holds, a technical "double bottom" pattern could form, opening a path for a recovery rally toward $2.00. Conversely, a clear breakdown below this support zone would shift focus to lower liquidity areas near $1.60 before the strong fundamental underpinnings can reassert their influence on the price.