XRP's Golden Cross Emerges Amid Weakest Network Activity and Broken ETF Streak
Published on 07/12/2026 at 22:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The contrast between XRP's price and its underlying network health has rarely been starker. While the token clings to $1.09 after a nine-week streak of institutional inflows came to an abrupt end, the number of active addresses on the XRP Ledger has slumped to just 22,888 — the lowest reading of the year. The two trends are moving in opposite directions, and neither shows signs of converging soon.
A golden cross appeared on the four-hour chart this week, with the 50-period moving average crossing above the 200-period line — a formation that short-term traders typically interpret as a bullish signal. But the technical cue is landing on barren ground. Daily active addresses have fallen 11% below their three-month baseline, and new wallet creation has dropped to 2,130 per day, the weakest pace since November 2024. Transaction volumes remain 21% below their three-month average, underscoring how little genuine user engagement the network is generating.
ETF inflows evaporate after nine-week run
On the institutional side, the picture is equally subdued. On July 8, investors pulled $7.29 million from US spot XRP ETFs, the largest single-day outflow since March and a decisive break in a nine-week accumulation streak. The entire withdrawal came from the Bitwise XRP ETF, which had sat idle for two days beforehand. While cumulative inflows over the nine weeks remain a substantial $1.48 billion, the momentum had already been faltering. July 6 and 7 saw zero net flows, followed by a modest $6.55 million inflow on July 2 and a $1.86 million outflow the day before that. By July 10, fresh capital trickled in at just $107,000, and total assets under management across the five US spot products slipped below the $1 billion mark. The products are now on track for their weakest week since late March, with three consecutive trading days of no net movement.
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Why the price floor holds
Despite the gloomy on-chain and institutional data, XRP has not broken down. The token currently trades roughly 8% above its 52-week low of $1.01, set on June 26, and has been oscillating in a tight band between $1.01 and $1.05 since the start of July. The resilience appears to be driven by large holders. Addresses controlling an estimated 68% of the circulating supply have been shifting coins into storage wallets rather than selling, providing a steady bid that prevents a deeper sell-off. That said, the price remains 7% below the 50-day moving average of $1.17 and 25% below the 200-day average of $1.46, while on a 12-month basis XRP has shed more than 54% of its value.
At the derivatives market, conditions have deteriorated as well. Open interest on Binance dropped from over $500 million in mid-June to $399 million by July 10, a decline of roughly 20% in one month. Long liquidations surged 94% week-over-week, while short liquidations fell 53%, indicating that leveraged bulls are being squeezed out. The relative strength index sits at 44.1 — neutral territory — and annualized 30-day volatility stands at 36.42%, a sign of the unusually low price movement compared with earlier market phases.
Glimmers of future demand
Not every metric is pointing south. Source-tagged transactions, which are payments tagged by exchanges and other services for identification purposes, rose 28.6%, and the number of distinct source tags climbed 13%. That suggests more service providers are integrating the network even as the raw user count shrinks. Analysts at Santiment have flagged several developments that could reignite interest: broader adoption of the stablecoin RLUSD, growth in tokenized assets on the XRP Ledger, rising institutional payment volumes, the expansion of the EVM sidechain, and the launch of new lending tools. If any of these catalysts gain traction, the price could challenge the $1.50 level, according to the analytics firm.
For now, however, the golden cross remains a point of observation rather than a confirmed trend reversal. The first real test would be a daily close above the 50-day moving average at $1.16, followed by a successful retest. That would mark the first genuine break of the downtrend that has been in place since spring. Until active users return and institutional capital flows again, XRP's price relies on the patience of its largest holders — a support that can shift as quickly as the next wallet stat.
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