XRP's Institutional Influx Meets Political Roadblock as Key Support Holds
Published on 07/04/2026 at 07:34 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
XRP heads into the US holiday weekend caught between two opposing forces. Institutional investors have poured fresh capital into spot ETFs, yet a long-awaited regulatory catalyst remains stalled in Washington. The token, trading at $1.09 with a 3.25% daily gain and a 4.24% weekly advance, finds itself glued to a narrow band just above the psychologically critical dollar level.
Spot ETFs on XRP absorbed $6.55 million on the Friday before Independence Day, extending a remarkable streak. The funds have now recorded positive inflows for seven consecutive weeks, bringing total net flows since launch to $1.47 billion. The buying pressure has proven resilient even as XRP’s price slid 22% in June alone to a low near $1.04. From its all-time high of $3.65 in July 2025, the token remains roughly 70% underwater.
The contrast between institutional demand and spot market weakness points to a divergence in time horizons. ETF buyers appear to be positioning for the long term, while shorter-term traders have ridden the correction. The pattern holds even when compared with broader crypto ETF activity: Bitcoin ETFs suffered $444.5 million in outflows on a single day last week as BTC dipped below $60,000, while XRP ETFs reported not a single day of redemptions. The seven active XRP funds now collectively manage close to $1 billion in assets.
Political calendar adds to uncertainty
The legislative path to regulatory clarity has hit a familiar snag. The CLARITY Act, which would classify XRP as a commodity rather than a security, missed its original target of July 4. The Senate entered its summer recess on June 29 and will not return until July 13, with leadership planning to prioritise a defence bill in the first week back. That pushes a possible vote to late July or early August at the earliest.
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The bill requires 60 votes in the Senate, meaning roughly seven Democrats would need to cross party lines. Negotiations stalled last week over an ethics clause tied to President Trump’s personal crypto holdings. Markets have shown sensitivity to procedural developments: on May 14, XRP jumped 4.5% to $1.49 on the back of a committee vote that advanced the legislation. A full passage could trigger a far more pronounced move.
Without that political catalyst, traders are left to read the charts. The 52-week low of $1.01, set on June 26, still defines the downside limit. A dense buying zone between $1.00 and $1.06 has absorbed selling pressure repeatedly, but a daily close below $1 could open the door to $0.80. To the upside, resistance sits at $1.18–$1.20, reinforced by the 50-day moving average at $1.21.
The relative strength index at 42.9 points to neutral territory — neither oversold nor overbought. XRP currently trades 27% below its 200-day moving average of $1.49, underscoring the depth of the longer-term downtrend. On a 12-month basis, the token has shed more than half its value; year-to-date losses stand at 42%.
Network activity offers a counterpoint
Beneath the price surface, the XRP Ledger is showing signs of life. Nearly 5,000 new wallets were created in a single day at the end of June, the strongest daily growth in three months. Social sentiment has also turned positive, with roughly 3.7 favourable comments for every negative one — a three-month high. Trading volume spiked on July 3, though analysts offered no single explanation for the jump.
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Wall Street’s longer-term view has grown more cautious. Standard Chartered recently slashed its year-end 2026 price target for XRP from $8.00 to $2.80 after the February sell-off, while leaving its 2030 forecast unchanged at $28.00.
For now, the token remains trapped between the buying zone near $1 and the resistance cluster around $1.20. The next major move may depend less on technicals and more on whether the Senate can resolve its ethics standoff when lawmakers return on July 13. Until then, the institutional bid and the political overhang will continue to pull XRP in opposite directions.
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