XRP's Senate Showdown: A $1.41 Bottleneck Meets a Triple-Leveraged ETF Debut

The clock is ticking for XRP on two fronts. In Washington, the CLARITY Act faces a make-or-break vote in the Senate Banking Committee before the May 21 recess. On Wall Street, GraniteShares is gearing up to launch triple-leveraged XRP ETFs on the Nasdaq on May 7 — a move that underscores growing institutional appetite even as the token struggles to break free from a stubborn price ceiling.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, speaking at the Consensus 2026 conference in Miami, called the next two weeks decisive. The House passed the CLARITY Act back in July 2025, but the Senate committee has been stalled by banking lobby opposition. A fresh compromise — one that bans stablecoin yields on deposits while permitting platform-linked rewards — has failed to break the logjam. Senator Cynthia Lummis warned in Miami that if the committee doesn't approve the text before the session break, the legislative clock resets after the midterm elections.

The stakes are enormous. Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered estimates that a positive committee outcome could unleash up to $8 billion in fresh ETF inflows. The bank has made the bill's progress a prerequisite for its current XRP price target of $2.80.

A Nasdaq Debut With No Direct Exposure

GraniteShares has set May 7 as the launch date for its 3x leveraged XRP ETFs, after postponing the rollout five times since April. Unlike spot-based products, these funds won't hold XRP directly. Instead, they'll use derivatives such as swaps and futures to achieve the leverage effect. The move comes after ProShares pulled a similar product in December 2025 amid regulatory headwinds.

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Institutional investors have already been piling into plain-vanilla spot ETFs. Net inflows have surpassed $1.3 billion, with Goldman Sachs holding roughly $154 million as the largest institutional player. Whale activity tells a similar story: large holders account for 91% of XRP withdrawals from exchanges, moving tokens into long-term custody.

The $1.45 Wall

Despite the institutional buildup, XRP is trading at $1.41, barely above its 50-day moving average. The token has bounced off the $1.45 resistance level four times this year. The culprit is a massive supply barrier: according to Glassnode, roughly 60% of all circulating XRP was acquired at an average cost of $1.44. Profit-taking at that threshold has capped every breakout attempt.

On a monthly basis, XRP has managed a 7.2% gain, but year-to-date losses stand at around 24%. The price action reflects the broader uncertainty hanging over the regulatory process.

Ripple's Parallel Track

While the political drama unfolds, Ripple is pushing ahead on the operational front. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has granted the company conditional approval as a national trust bank, allowing it to custody digital assets for institutional clients. An application for a Federal Reserve master account is already in motion — a step that would make Ripple the first crypto firm with full US banking integration.

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The company is also leaning heavily into automation. Artificial intelligence now writes or assists with 75% of Ripple's programming code. On-Demand Liquidity volumes jumped 45% in the first quarter to $1.2 billion. And in October 2026, Ripple will merge its Swell and Apex conferences into a single event in New York, expecting more than 1,500 attendees.

The Week of Decision

All eyes are on the week of May 11, when the Senate Banking Committee is expected to hold its markup session on the CLARITY Act. If the bill clears this hurdle, the biggest regulatory obstacle for XRP falls away. If the banking lobby blocks it again, legal clarity remains a distant prospect — and the token's $1.45 ceiling may hold for months to come.

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