XRP's Supply Squeeze Meets Demand Drought as Golden Cross Fails to Ignite Rally
Published on 07/13/2026 at 07:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The amount of XRP sitting on exchanges has collapsed to a seven-year low, yet the token's price remains stubbornly stuck near multi-month troughs. Roughly half of all exchange-held tokens have been drained over the past nine months, but with no corresponding surge in buying pressure, the shrinking supply has done little to jolt the market. XRP currently trades at around $1.09, barely eight percent above its 52-week low of $1.01 and a far cry from the $3.65 peak hit in July 2025.
Two forces are driving the exodus from exchanges. Newly launched spot ETFs on XRP have absorbed approximately 970 million tokens into custody for institutional investors, permanently sidelining those coins from daily trading. At the same time, long-term holders are moving large tranches into private wallets, reducing the float even further. In theory, this should be a textbook recipe for price appreciation — tighter supply, persistent demand. But price formation remains a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, and removing coins only weakens the sell-side. Without active buying interest, the price cannot rise, and that buying interest has been conspicuously absent in 2026.
The institutional demand that helped clear exchange inventories is itself showing signs of fatigue. After nine consecutive weeks of net inflows that cumulatively reached $1.48 billion into XRP spot ETFs — a stretch that persisted through the market's worst sell-offs — the tide turned last week. Data through July 9 shows net outflows of $7.29 million, and Friday's figures will determine whether the weekly inflow streak is officially broken. Even if the series ends, the $1.48 billion accumulated so far remains a structural support. But the first negative weekly close in ten weeks would mark a clear shift in sentiment, arriving just as XRP attempts its most technically significant breakout of the year.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?
That breakout attempt comes in the form of a golden cross on the four-hour chart, where the 50-period moving average has crossed above the 200-period average. Traders typically interpret this as a short-term bullish signal. Yet the signal lacks fundamental reinforcement. On-chain activity on the XRP Ledger has slumped to some of the quietest levels in recent memory. Active addresses are running 11 percent below their three-month baseline, and transaction counts, while up three to four percent week-over-week and month-over-month, remain 21 percent below the quarterly average. The disconnect between technical patterns and network usage leaves market participants skeptical that the golden cross will trigger a sustained rally.
Adding to the caution is the dismal state of the derivatives market. Open interest on Binance has fallen from over $500 million in mid-June to $399 million as of July 10 — a drop of roughly 20 percent in a month. Long liquidations surged 94 percent week-over-week while short liquidations dropped 53 percent, indicating that leveraged bulls are being flushed out while bears hold their ground. The Relative Strength Index sits at 44.1, neutral territory after recovering from oversold June levels, but the broader chart structure remains hostile to bulls. Every relevant moving average — the 50-day at $1.16, the 100-day at $1.28, and the 200-day at $1.45 — looms above the current price and is sloping downward. Each recovery attempt since May has produced a lower high, with the most recent rejection at the 50-day line on July 5 and 6 being the third failed effort in a row.
The next catalyst could be political. The U.S. Senate returns from its summer recess today and is expected to take up the CLARITY Act, a bill that would provide regulatory clarity for digital assets. Originally slated for a White House signing by July 4, the timeline slipped after the Senate adjourned on June 29 without a vote. Leadership now plans to prioritize the defense budget in the first week back, pushing a floor vote on CLARITY to late July or early August. The bill's path remains narrow — it requires 60 votes, meaning roughly seven Democratic senators must cross the aisle. Negotiations collapsed last week over an ethics clause targeting President Trump's own crypto holdings. If the bill does pass, analysts estimate it could unlock $4 billion to $8 billion in fresh XRP ETF inflows, dwarfing the sums seen so far.
For now, the token trades in a tight range around $1.01 to $1.09, a zone that has halted sell-offs since early June. The first meaningful test for bulls is a daily close above $1.16 — the 50-day moving average — followed by a successful retest. Until then, the golden cross remains an observation point rather than a confirmed trend change. The paradox of XRP's market is that supply has never been tighter, yet demand has never been harder to find.
Ad
XRP Stock: New Analysis - 13 July
Fresh XRP information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
