YPF Shares Slide on Strategic Shift and Downgrade

Shares of Argentine energy firm YPF experienced significant pressure on Thursday, retreating over 4% and surrendering recent technical gains. The decline followed a dual announcement involving a major strategic review and a sharp downgrade from equity researchers.

The downward move was triggered by confirmation from YPF's CEO, Horacio Marín, that the company is actively considering an initial public offering (IPO) for its "Full" division. This unit operates a network of service station convenience stores and fast-food chains across Argentina. Management frames this potential spin-off as a strategic move to divest non-core assets, aiming to raise liquidity for funding capital-intensive shale oil projects in the Vaca Muerta region.

Adding substantial selling pressure was a morning note from Zacks Research, which downgraded YPF's stock from a "Hold" to a "Strong Sell" recommendation. Zacks cited the company's weak recent earnings performance and a negative net margin of 2.45% for the last reported quarter as primary reasons for the bearish shift.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying YPF?

Financial Performance and Technical Setback

This correction interrupts a brief technical breakout witnessed just a day earlier, when the stock managed to climb above its 200-day moving average at $32.16. Market confidence was undermined by the confluence of the negative analyst call and emerging uncertainties regarding the timeline for the potential "Full" division IPO.

The company's financial health remains under scrutiny. YPF's most recent quarterly report, filed in November 2025, revealed a loss per share of $0.53, a stark miss compared to analyst expectations for a $0.82 profit. Revenue of $4.59 billion did, however, slightly exceed forecasts. The significant investment requirements for its core projects are reflected in a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.71.

Investor Focus Shifts to Forthcoming Earnings

Attention now turns to YPF's next key financial update. The company is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on March 5, 2026. Current analyst consensus projects a substantial earnings recovery for the 2026 fiscal year, with an estimated earnings per share of $7.25. However, the latest downgrade activity suggests these optimistic forecasts may be subject to downward revisions. From a technical perspective, the 200-day moving average at $32.16 is expected to serve as a critical support level in the near term.