2G Energy's 275 MW US Data-Centre Deal Won't Pay Off Until 2028
Published on 09/28/2026 at 10:10 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Artificial intelligence is devouring electricity at a pace grid operators can barely match, and the scramble for reliable off-grid power has turned decentralised generation into one of the market's hottest tickets. For 2G Energy, a mid-sized plant builder from the Westphalian town of Heek, that shift looked like an open door. Last Wednesday the company announced a 275-megawatt order from Energy Vault Holding Inc., covering containerised generating units destined to feed AI data centres and hyperscalers across the United States through dedicated infrastructure solutions.
The market's initial enthusiasm has since cooled. On Monday the stock shed 2.7% to EUR 57.05, extending a retreat that began when Parmantier & Cie. reaffirmed its sell rating on Friday. Two days earlier, the shares had closed at EUR 58.95 after a 6.3% slide, with the same sell call and a EUR 39.00 price target cited as the trigger.
A Deal That Books Revenue Years From Now
The caution stems less from the order itself than from its timing. According to the agreement, deliveries are scheduled to run from the fourth quarter of 2027 through the third quarter of 2028. That leaves the current fiscal year 2026 without any revenue or cash flow contribution from the project. Parmantier & Cie. also flags that the arrangement rests on non-binding production slot reservations, and points to the thin equity base of US partner Energy Vault as an added layer of risk. The research house estimates the deal's volume at roughly EUR 275 million.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying 2G Energy?
Between a reservation of manufacturing capacity and actual cash arriving, plant engineering routinely loses years to failed financing or renegotiated terms. A prestige project that ships no earlier than late 2027 does little for the operating business in the quarters immediately ahead.
Two Analysts, Two Very Different Price Targets
The split on the Street is stark. First Berlin Equity Research reiterated its buy recommendation on Friday and lifted its target from EUR 76 to EUR 83, pointing to booming US demand: first-half 2026 US order intake reached EUR 350 million, driven largely by data-centre customers, with the new 275 MW contract reinforcing that trajectory. Berenberg had already initiated coverage on 14 September with a buy rating and a EUR 91.00 target, emphasising long-term growth potential. Parmantier & Cie. takes the opposite view, stressing delayed cash inflows over future promise.
Despite the recent pullback, the shares remain up 62% year-to-date on one reading of the sources and 68% on another — either way, a valuation that leaves little room for disappointment. Meeting those advance accolades will require the day-to-day business to carry the load on its own.
Two Dates That Could Reset the Narrative
Answers are close at hand. Preliminary first-half 2026 figures are due on Tuesday, 29 September 2026, followed by a Capital Markets Day in Heek on 1 October 2026. Management will need to demonstrate just how resilient the order pipeline is once the non-binding US commitments are set aside. Investors are likely to use the second event to press for specifics on the American strategy — and on whether the AI boom's promises can survive the long wait until the first containers actually ship.
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