Adidas Analysts Split on Timing as Brand Controversies Muddy the Recovery Story
Published on 09/10/2026 at 05:40 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Two of Europe's most closely watched research houses are betting on an Adidas rebound, but their conviction arrives at an awkward moment for the Herzogenaurach sportswear maker. Barclays upgraded the stock to Overweight in early September and lifted its price target to EUR 210, while RBC Capital Markets reaffirmed its Outperform rating with a EUR 200 target on Wednesday. Both calls imply meaningful upside from the current EUR 146 level — yet the market has so far refused to play along.
Barclays analyst Viktoria Petrova pointed to the company's upcoming Innovation Days on September 23 and 24 as a potential catalyst, suggesting Adidas could surpass its own EUR 2.3 billion operating profit target for 2026. The bank initiated coverage alongside the upgrade and did not rule out fresh medium-term quantitative goals being unveiled at the event. RBC's Piral Dadhania, meanwhile, frames the bull case around Adidas' positioning in current fashion trends and the strength of its local businesses, which he believes can offset uneven demand in China.
A Relative Winner Against Nike
Dadhania sees the German group as better placed than US rival Nike, which he describes as being in an early transformation phase with substantial ground to make up. Adidas, by contrast, is operating with greater agility — a point borne out by second-quarter results that showed revenue rising 13.29% to EUR 6.74 billion.
That operational momentum has yet to translate into share price performance. The stock closed Wednesday at EUR 146.35, down 0.5% on the day, with RBC noting a 0.4% decline in XETRA trading at EUR 146.45. The broader DAX has been under pressure from rising oil prices and expectations of an interest rate hike by the European Central Bank, dragging Adidas along with it.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Adidas?
The longer view is bleaker still. Over 30 days the shares have shed 10%, and year-to-date they are down 13%. At current levels, Adidas trades 27% below its 52-week high of EUR 200.90, set in October. The relative strength index sits at 32.4, a reading that points to oversold conditions and could support a short-term technical bounce — though relying on that signal alone would mean ignoring the fundamental headwinds.
Apology and Boycott Calls Weigh on the Brand
Those headwinds are partly self-inflicted. Adidas Arabia issued an apology after a campaign featuring a former Israeli soldier triggered international boycott calls. The company characterized the initiative as a local effort and stressed that its single-shoe program — running since January across 23 European countries, with plans to extend into Asia and the Middle East — is designed to promote inclusion.
Reputational flare-ups carry outsized weight for a brand like Adidas, where image feeds directly into consumer purchasing decisions. The timing compounds the discomfort: a positive analyst endorsement and negative media coverage landing in the same window leaves investors uncertain about which force will prevail.
The controversy is not the only one drawing attention. A new Dirndl priced at EUR 400 has stirred debate, with some design elements praised as original while voices from the traditional costume sector criticized both the price tag and what they see as a lack of respect for heritage.
China Exposure and a Fragile Trade Backdrop
Macro conditions add another layer of difficulty. German exports to China fell 9.5% in July, according to the Federal Statistical Office, underscoring the fragility of the trade environment in a market where Adidas must compete to close the gap to its former highs. The company also continues to roll out regular product lines: Adidas Originals partnered with Pharrell Williams to release the VIRGINIA Watermoc in three colorways at the end of August, with a global sales launch in early September.
For the full year 2026, consensus expectations remain constructive. Analysts forecast earnings of EUR 9.41 per share, a marked improvement on the prior year, while the dividend estimate of EUR 3.61 compares with EUR 2.80 paid last year. Whether those projections hold will depend heavily on how well the brand can defend its fashion momentum against a backdrop of global consumer caution — and on whether the September Innovation Days deliver the product pipeline that Barclays is counting on.
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