Adidas Hits Record Numbers, but Europe Holds the Key to What Comes Next

Adidas delivered record results for the third quarter of 2026 — and the stock still slipped intraday following Thursday's final figures. The muted share-price reaction says less about the quarter itself than about timing: the Herzogenaurach-based company had already published preliminary results and an upgraded profit outlook roughly two weeks earlier, leaving little fresh ground for the final release to break.

What the confirmed numbers show is genuine operating momentum. Revenue hit an all-time high of €7,252 million, operating profit reached a record €1,008 million — up 37% — and earnings from continuing operations came in at €711 million. Reuters reported that strong running and football sales drove growth, with full-price selling adding further support. The quarter's strength, in other words, does not rest on a one-off financial item.

Tariff refunds add a layer investors should not overlook

The guidance Adidas raised two weeks ago targets roughly €2.5 billion in operating profit for 2026, a figure that includes about €200 million in US tariff refunds. That composition matters: headline profit and underlying business trends do not tell an identical story. Management also plans to plow part of the windfall back into the business rather than let the full effect flow through to the bottom line — around €100 million is earmarked for reinvestment in the fourth quarter.

Regionally, the picture is uneven. Currency-adjusted revenue rose 13% in Greater China and 12% in North America during the third quarter. Europe was the outlier, posting the only quarterly decline of any region, as reported by Handelsblatt on Thursday. Adidas attributed the drop to lower wholesale deliveries and shipments pushed back by the rollout of a new merchandise management system.

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Gulden pins the rebound on the closing quarter

CEO Bjørn Gulden, speaking to WirtschaftsWoche on Thursday, said Adidas expects high single-digit percentage growth in Europe in the fourth quarter — a sharp reversal from the 4% decline recorded there in the three months just ended. That forecast is the operative hinge on which the bull case now turns. It describes a change of direction rather than a result already banked, and it is neither a delivered outcome nor a guarantee of sustained improvement.

Analysts have grown more constructive regardless. JPMorgan lifted its price target to €230 from €210 on Friday while keeping its "Overweight" rating. Jefferies had raised its own target a day earlier, to €200 from €187, with a "Buy" unchanged. Both houses are more confident, yet their differing targets show the upgrades alone do not amount to a single verdict on upside.

Why the European test carries weight

A rebound in Europe would do more than extend an existing run of strength — it would mean a market that has been dragging on results starts contributing positively again. Pair that with the profit engine already on display, and the optimism behind the higher targets becomes easier to follow, without presuming those targets will be met. The risk runs the other way too: if European growth falls short of Gulden's projection, a key pillar of the positive case weakens, and no price-target increase could offset that operational disappointment, since targets rest on estimates rather than on business results.

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None of this would automatically signal a company-wide setback — that would require looking at the overall trajectory. The subtler danger is treating an expected improvement as already secured, and thereby underestimating the gap between corporate outlook and actual execution.

The fourth quarter is the next concrete checkpoint. When those numbers land, two things will matter most: whether Adidas has made good on its European growth pledge, and whether it has preserved the earnings strength already achieved. For investors, the deciding factor should be confirmation of the operational preconditions — not the raised targets on their own.

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