Adidas' World Cup Boost Meets a Margin Reality Check
Published on 08/01/2026 at 02:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers coming out of Herzogenaurach this week tell two very different stories. On one hand, Adidas just posted its strongest quarterly revenue ever, propelled by a World Cup that saw both finalists wearing its kits. On the other, the company's profitability is heading in the opposite direction — and investors are struggling to reconcile the two.
The shares have been caught in the crossfire. After a bruising week that saw the stock shed 7.74 percent in the wake of the earnings release, the equity has begun to stabilise, trading at 159.15 euros on Friday with a modest 0.28 percent gain. The longer view is less forgiving: over the past four weeks, the stock has lost roughly 11 percent, leaving it at 160.10 euros and prompting a familiar question on trading floors — overreaction or justified concern?
Record Sales, Squeezed Margins
The trigger for the sell-off was not a demand shortfall. Far from it. Second-quarter revenue climbed 14 percent on a currency-adjusted basis to a record 6.7 billion euros, powered by the football World Cup. The company even raised its full-year guidance, now calling for currency-neutral growth of 9 to 10 percent.
The problem sits further down the income statement. Operating profit rose just 5 percent, and the margin slipped from 9.2 percent to 8.5 percent — a widening gap to the company's long-term target that caught the market off guard. Adidas left its operating profit forecast unchanged at around 2.3 billion euros, while analysts had been pencilling in 2.4 billion.
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Even management was taken aback. Chief executive Bjørn Gulden admitted to being "very surprised" by the margin compression, unable to say definitively whether it stemmed from heavy World Cup marketing outlays or a cautious second-half outlook — this despite the company delivering on its promises.
A One-Off Cost or a Structural Problem?
The expense side of the ledger offers some context. Marketing and point-of-sale spending jumped nearly 30 percent in the quarter to 924 million euros — a spike tied to a major sporting event rather than a fundamental deterioration of the business model. Gulden has signalled that these costs will normalise in the coming quarters and defended the campaign, noting that Adidas sold more football product than ever before.
That argument has found support in at least one corner of the analyst community. The DZ Bank reaffirmed its buy recommendation with a fair value of 215 euros, with analyst Thomas Maul urging investors to treat the post-earnings dip as an entry point. Maul points to the World Cup and robust demand for running shoes as growth drivers, and expects marketing expenses and overheads to settle back down in the third quarter. He also sees potential upside from US tariff refunds of between 250 and 300 million dollars that could bolster results further.
Technical indicators offer a similar read. The relative strength index sits at 34.1, creeping toward oversold territory, while the stock has reclaimed its 200-day moving average — a sign that the broader uptrend remains intact despite the recent turbulence.
A New Hand on the Financial Till
Amid the earnings fallout, the company announced a change in its finance leadership. Birgit Kretschmer will take over as chief financial officer on 1 September 2026, succeeding Harm Ohlmeyer, who is stepping down at the end of that year after nearly three decades with the company, including ten as CFO. Ohlmeyer's tenure saw the build-out of the e-commerce business and the divestment of TaylorMade and Reebok.
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Kretschmer brings her own deep familiarity with the company, having spent 25 years at Adidas before moving to C&A as finance chief. She also holds non-executive roles at Ceconomy and Misterspex. Both Gulden and supervisory board chairman Nassef Sawiris have welcomed the appointment, citing her extensive experience within the group.
The transition lands at a delicate moment. Adidas has reaped the operational benefits of the World Cup, yet the cost side of the equation now dominates investor scrutiny. With marketing spend expected to normalise and tariff refunds potentially on the horizon, the task of converting the foundation Ohlmeyer built into stable margins falls to Kretschmer.
For now, the market's verdict hinges on whether the World Cup spending proves to be the one-off management insists it is. If it does, the current share price may well look like a bargain. If not, the scepticism that has gripped the stock over the past month could prove entirely warranted.
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