Almonty: A Mine, a Metal, and a Calendar That Has to Hold
Published on 10/18/2026 at 19:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Almonty heads into its investor day with the stock on the back foot and the tungsten market offering a less comfortable backdrop than the company's strategic story might suggest. Shares fell 17% over the past seven days and slipped 2.7% on Friday. Neither move, on its own, proves anything about operations — but together they show how little the promise of a strategically vital raw material source is currently carrying.
The webcast event, announced Tuesday for October 19, will cover the tungsten market and provide operational updates on the individual mines. That combination matters more than another round of price-target comparisons. Project progress and price assumptions cannot be judged in isolation, and the session will be worth most if it makes the distance between planning and execution legible.
Two Analysts, Two Yardsticks
The research community is not speaking with one voice on valuation. Oppenheimer's Ian Zaffino cut his price target to US$19 from US$25 on Thursday, citing lower valuation multiples among comparable companies, while keeping his "Outperform" rating. A softer peer group is not the same as a reported operational deterioration at Almonty — but the reduction should not be waved away simply because the positive rating survived. It shows how heavily a target price leans on the valuation environment.
DA Davidson, by contrast, reaffirmed both its buy recommendation and its US$33 target on October 12 after talks with Almonty management. The firm did adjust its revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates for 2026 and 2027, pointing to timing shifts across the project portfolio and revised near-term price assumptions. That revision carries the more useful message: the valuation rests on assumptions that have to move. A positive rating does not mean timelines and earnings contributions are already locked in.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
The Metal Has Its Own Vote
Tungsten prices are not cooperating with the independence narrative. According to Oppenheimer, the APT price recently fell to US$2,700 per MTU from US$3,140. Strategic significance and softening market prices can coexist — new procurement rules may enhance the value of alternative supply chains, but they do not suspend the commodity market or substitute for reliable operations.
The political backdrop is real enough. Expected US defense restrictions, taking effect January 1, 2027, are set to place greater weight on the mine of origin for selected tungsten products, covering China, Russia and other designated countries. Processing elsewhere is not expected to sidestep the origin rules. With China producing roughly 80% of the world's tungsten, that concentration explains why alternative sources draw political interest — though it says nothing about how quickly any single supplier can ramp up reliably.
Sangdong Moves From Status to Shipment
Sangdong in South Korea sits at the center of that structural shift. The mine is commercially operational, and plant certification was completed in mid-September. CEO Lewis Black has named October 24 as the planned date for the first commercial shipment, with more than 90% of first-phase production contracted long-term. A concrete date makes progress checkable; it does not remove execution risk.
Other building blocks belong in the same frame. Black said in an October 11 newsletter that shipments from Rwanda are expected to exceed 100 tonnes per month from November — a company expectation, not confirmed volumes. Recycling in Los Santos operates under a multi-year offtake agreement. Investors should gauge each by its implementation status rather than treat it as a delivered growth success.
The balance sheet is on the agenda too, which is why hunting only for fresh production promises on October 19 would miss the point. A coherent picture linking mine operations, the delivery schedule and the financial position would tell investors far more. The near-term test is not which analyst house names the more attractive target. It is whether announced shipments actually leave the dock — and whether the numbers behind them hold up.
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