Almonty: Oppenheimer Cuts Its Target to $19 While DA Davidson Holds at $33 — and Tungsten Sits at $2,700
Published on 10/19/2026 at 13:02 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Two analysts, two price targets, one metal that won't cooperate. That is the short version of where Almonty stands as it heads into an investor day meant to tie together the tungsten market, pricing trends and the operational progress of its mines.
The longer version starts with the numbers. Oppenheimer trimmed its price target on Thursday to $19 from $25, keeping its "Outperform" rating intact. The cut was attributed to lower valuation multiples among comparable companies as well as softening tungsten and APT prices, which the report put at $2,700 per MTU. DA Davidson, by contrast, reaffirmed its buy recommendation and its $33.00 target on October 12 following conversations with company representatives, even as it revised its revenue estimates and expectations for adjusted EBITDA.
A Positive Call With a Lower Price Tag
The Oppenheimer move captures the central tension neatly: a fundamentally constructive view can coexist with a lower justified share value. Operational progress and valuation pressure are not mutually exclusive, and it is too short a leap to read additional upside into a stock purely on the strength of company milestones.
Thursday's session offered a reminder of how little a single day explains. The stock moved 2.5% higher that day, then posted a daily change of -2.7% on Friday. A friendly session is neither proof of better economic prospects nor confirmation that announced expansion plans will succeed — and a weak one is no verdict on the projects either. No direct link between the sector's softness and Friday's decline has been established.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
China's Quiet Market Sets the Backdrop
That softness has a name and a location. Media reports described the Chinese tungsten market on Friday as marked by weak seasonal demand from downstream industries and thinner trading activity. For Almonty, that is important context — but it is not a company-specific piece of bad news.
Keeping the two levels apart matters. Weaker commodity prices can dampen expectations for a company; progress on its projects answers a different question entirely, namely whether the planned operational steps are actually advancing. At Almonty, both stories are running side by side.
Sangdong: A Milestone and a Distinction
CEO Lewis Black used his October 11 newsletter to address the planned first commercial tungsten shipment from Sangdong in more than 30 years, alongside progress in Rwanda and the second expansion phase. The wording deserves attention: Black spoke of a planned delivery, which does not amount to a completed shipment. For investors, the operational test lies in execution, not in the announcement itself.
That distinction is easy to blur. A commercial delivery is an operational success; an expansion plan describes a prospect. Weighing the two equally mixes what has been achieved with what might be. The combination of shipment and expansion is precisely what makes Almonty interesting — and precisely what can tempt observers to run several development steps ahead of reality. The delivery deserves recognition; the expansion plans deserve scrutiny. Together they do not justify an automatic valuation premium.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
What the Investor Day Has to Prove
Friday's investor day is the natural proving ground. The agenda includes an overview of the tungsten market and price trends as well as operational updates on the individual mines. The measure of the event is not how many advances get presented. It is how convincingly the market environment and the operating development combine into a coherent economic picture — and, above all, how Almonty situates its expansion plans within a weaker pricing environment.
On that score, a cautious valuation yardstick looks more persuasive than a pure progress narrative. Almonty has operational steps to show for itself. A durable positive case, however, requires reading those steps together with the price environment. Credit for execution is warranted; a down payment on the economic success of the next expansion phase would go too far.
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