Almonty's 21-Year Offtake Rewrites the Tungsten Math — Even as the Stock Takes a Breather
Published on 09/10/2026 at 18:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
A company nearly quintuples its revenue, locks in a 21-year supply agreement on markedly better terms, and watches its shares shed more than six percent the same day. That is not a contradiction of the tungsten thesis so much as a valuation catching its breath.
The quarter that did the talking
Almonty Industries reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of C$43.0 million, up 498 percent year over year, driven largely by sharply higher tungsten APT prices. Mining profit came in at C$26.1 million, and adjusted EBITDA swung from a loss of C$4.8 million to a gain of C$17.6 million. A gross margin of 60.7 percent suggests the company is benefiting from pricing power, not just volume. Net income of C$181.8 million was flattered by C$173.1 million in non-cash gains, but the operating picture underneath holds up.
The headline development, though, is the extended offtake contract with GTP: a 21-year term, volumes raised 40 percent to 4.41 million MTU, and pricing improved by 6.3 percent. That is not a short-term momentum play — it is a long-dated, secured sales channel, precisely what investors should want from a commodity producer in a structurally tight market.
Why the market still fidgets
The central question is whether tungsten scarcity is structural or cyclical. The evidence points to the former. China controlled roughly 79 percent of global mine production in 2025, and APT exports from China collapsed 70 percent over the first eleven months of that year. The Rotterdam APT price climbed from around US$390 per MTU in early 2025 to roughly US$3,400 by spring. MSC Industrial, a major US tooling distributor, told the Jefferies Industrials Conference that tungsten carbide input inflation was running "in the range of 500 percent" — a line that captures the urgency for Western buyers.
That squeeze, not any single quarter, is the real value driver. And yet the stock now trades at EUR 14.80, following a prior close of EUR 15.77 — a single-day decline of 6.2 percent. Over twelve months it is still up 290 percent. Read in isolation, the pullback looks alarming; in context, it is the natural pause of a stock that has nearly quadrupled in a year, a bout of profit-taking rather than a verdict on the business.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Two exchanges out, one index in
While the operating story unfolds, Almonty has been quietly redrawing its market map. The company delisted from the TSX in Toronto effective July 31 and from the ASX in Sydney effective September 1. What sounds like a retreat is in fact a concentration: management is focusing its presence where the big money now sits — and that is no longer Canada or Australia.
At the end of June, Almonty was added to the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000, capitalization-weighted indices that pull in institutional capital mandated to track benchmarks. Ascending into those indices brings inflows without a single fund manager needing to understand the tungsten story. That is the structural shift worth watching: a niche commodity producer becoming part of the passive investing universe.
Geopolitics weighs heavier than the chart
Alongside the operational progress, the regulatory environment is tilting in Almonty's favor. NDAA Section 854 restricts US defense procurement from Chinese sources starting January 1, 2027, and an executive order dated July 20, 2026 tightens the exemption rules further. Defense contractors such as Renk and TKMS are reportedly already eyeing Sangdong as a potential Western key supplier — a narrative that dovetails with the company's balance sheet: cash rose from C$268.4 million at the end of 2025 to C$1.227 billion as of June 30, supported by an US$800 million convertible bond carrying a 2.25 percent coupon and maturing in 2031.
That liquidity gives Almonty room that other tungsten players lack — for instance, to ramp Sangdong Phase I to roughly 640,000 tonnes of ore per year on schedule without leaning on outside financing. The Sangdong mine in South Korea's Gangwon province has been producing since July, with its processing plant now delivering actual throughput — no longer a paper project but operational reality.
The Street takes notice
Jefferies initiated coverage in early September with a buy rating and a price target of US$26.25, citing Almonty's role in building Western tungsten supply chains. The stock's trajectory has already anticipated much of this: it has more than quadrupled over twelve months and nearly doubled since the start of the year. The prior session's decline of 4.1 percent to EUR 15.77 fits a pattern that has become routine after months of gains. On a seven-day view the shares are still up 2.7 percent; over 30 days, 36 percent. The 52-week high of EUR 20.61, set in April, sits 23 percent above the current price.
That volatility — annualized at 76 percent, with a 30-day reading of 77 percent — is the price of a stock straddling two worlds: the speculative commodity bet and the respectable index constituent. An RSI just under 59 signals neither overheating nor exhaustion, but rather consolidation after a steep climb.
The bottom line
On balance, the structural arguments outweigh the short-term setback. A supply deficit, sharpened by Chinese export restrictions and Western procurement law, should underpin tungsten pricing for years. Almonty's operating numbers already reflect that. The delistings from Toronto and Sydney read as a management wager on the same thesis — a future in which those cities are simply no longer the relevant stages for this company. What remains open is whether Almonty becomes the blueprint for Western resource sovereignty, or whether the index inclusion proves a technical interlude before the next tungsten price correction cools the enthusiasm. Either way, investors who take the fundamental story seriously are likely to read pullbacks like this one as a breather, not a warning.
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