Almonty's $300 Million Buyback Lands as Analysts Split on Tungsten's Run
Published on 09/26/2026 at 09:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Almonty Industries has become a fixture on the radar of major international investment houses. Jefferies was already covering the stock; now Goldman Sachs and Stifel have joined the roster, drawn by the company's strategic positioning against a backdrop of global supply-chain risk in tungsten.
The catalyst is a market that has tightened dramatically. According to Stifel analyst Brock Cannon, China controlled roughly 80% of worldwide mine production in 2025 and held about 85% of downstream ammonium paratungstate refining capacity. Following the introduction of Chinese export controls, prices for the industrial metal have surged some 775% since the start of 2025. Industrial and defense sectors have since been hunting for dependable sources outside China — and Almonty sits squarely in that search.
Two Houses, Two Very Different Targets
Stifel rates the shares a Buy with a $25 price target. Goldman Sachs, by contrast, opened coverage with restraint, pointing to the trajectory of tungsten prices, which its analysts believe could normalize from here. A further concern: the ramp-up at the Sangdong mine in South Korea may proceed more slowly than many market participants hope.
That gap between the two targets lays bare the uncertainty running through the market. Bulls are betting on fast-rising revenues; skeptics counsel patience. What divides expectations most is the question of how quickly production can actually be brought up to speed.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Sangdong Enters Commercial Production
Commercial tungsten output at Sangdong began just over a week ago. South Korean authorities had granted the inspection certificates for the processing and crushing facilities and cleared the sale of concentrate. More than 90% of Phase I production is already contractually committed through fixed agreements, according to the company.
Since that production start, the stock has slipped 1.7%. A planned second expansion phase is designed to nearly double annual ore throughput to 1.2 million tonnes by 2027. In Cannon's view, Sangdong could cover roughly 40% of Western and allied tungsten supply once both phases are complete.
Parallel to Korea, Almonty is pushing capacity growth at Panasqueira in Portugal. Management's goal is to become the leading tungsten producer in the Western world by the end of 2028, with additional potential seen in a planned tungsten oxide facility.
Tailings Deal Adds a Second Revenue Stream
Beyond opening new mine capacity, the board is monetizing existing stockpiles — a move intended to secure near-term, dependable revenue and reduce reliance on mine expansion alone. On September 17, the company announced a multi-year offtake agreement with Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten, a subsidiary of the Sandvik Group, covering at least roughly 1,720 tonnes of WO3 recovered from reprocessing tailings at the Los Santos mine. The deal includes a conditional advance payment of $3.0 million.
Buyback Backs the Capital Structure
Management also sent a signal on the capital-markets front, authorizing a share repurchase program of up to $300 million. The plan permits the buyback of as many as 14.4 million of the company's own shares over a 36-month window.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Trading desks have reflected the operational acceleration. On Friday, the closing price in German trading climbed 11% to EUR 12.09. Year to date, the shares are up 52%. Market capitalization now stands at the equivalent of EUR 2.74 billion.
Even so, more cautious analyst voices urge vigilance regarding execution risks across the ongoing expansion projects.
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