Almonty's Tungsten Calculus: A Growing Ore Stockpile Meets a Shifting US Trade Landscape
Published on 08/11/2026 at 05:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers tell one story. The share price tells another. For Almonty Industries, the gap between the two has rarely been wider than it was this week, as the tungsten producer's operational momentum collides with a newly assertive US trade policy that is redrawing the sector's supply map.
At the heart of the operational narrative sits Sangdong, the company's South Korean mine that is now feeding stockpiled ore through its newly commissioned processing plant at a steady clip. Management confirmed on Monday that roughly 139,700 tonnes of ore — carrying a tungsten trioxide grade of 0.25 percent — are either already in the processing pipeline or awaiting their turn. That represents the roughly 120,000 tonnes accumulated by the end of the first quarter, plus a further 19,700 tonnes mined during Q2. At prevailing market prices, the hoard carries a theoretical gross value of around $68 million, enough to keep the Phase I processing line supplied for approximately 2.6 months.
The transition from mine developer to active producer has been gathering pace since July 1, when Almonty first began feeding the new plant. That operational inflection point is now reflected in the company's financials. First-quarter revenue came in at $25.4 million, a 221 percent jump year over year, powered by record tungsten prices and a strong showing from the Panasqueira mine in Portugal. Operating cash flow swung to positive territory at $9.7 million, against a negative $4.4 million in the prior-year period, while the balance sheet showed $259.9 million in cash as of March 31 — a position reinforced by an oversubscribed $700 million convertible bond completed in June.
Yet the market's reaction on Monday was decidedly cooler. The stock closed at $13.70, down 3.39 percent on the day, with selling pressure building through the session after a softer start. The trigger: a newly announced US export restriction on tungsten scrap, set to take effect August 27.
For twelve months, exporters will be required to direct 100 percent of their monthly tungsten scrap sales to US buyers. It is a measure aimed at keeping critical material onshore, but its immediate effect has been to inject fresh uncertainty into a market already wrestling with softening prices. Tungsten carbide inserts were trading between $28 and $34 per pound in late July, down 13 percent month over month, with round bars off 12 percent. The trade flows the rule targets were hardly booming — US scrap exports totaled 2,183 tonnes in the first half of 2026, marginally below the 2,202 tonnes shipped in the same period a year earlier — but the destinations of those exports, chiefly Japan, Germany and South Korea, will now have to look elsewhere.
For Almonty, the calculus is genuinely two-sided. The near-term price weakness weighs on sentiment, and the company's shares have become increasingly sensitive to any news emanating from the global tungsten supply chain — a chain in which Almonty occupies a rare position as one of the few producers operating outside China. But the longer-term read is more favorable: a more protectionist US import posture could hand Western-aligned producers additional pricing leverage, particularly as Washington looks to secure critical minerals for defense and high-technology applications.
That strategic dimension helps explain a separate corporate development that flew somewhat under the radar. In April, Almonty relocated its corporate headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana — a move designed to place the company closer to US defense customers and its own Gentung tungsten project. The geographic repositioning toward Washington is no accident.
Investors now face a waiting game on two fronts. The next quarterly report will be scrutinized for evidence that Sangdong's ramp-up is tracking toward full Phase I capacity — a milestone that would position Almonty to supply a meaningful slice of non-Chinese global tungsten demand. Analysts are penciling in earnings of $0.10 per share on revenue of $52.66 million, more than double the prior quarter. Alongside that, the company is advancing the adjacent Sangdong molybdenum project.
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The recent financial history suggests the operational engine is capable of delivering. In Q3 2025, revenue reached CA$8.70 million, up roughly 28 percent year over year, while net income surged more than 700 percent to CA$33.19 million. Those figures are now several quarters old, but they underscore a trajectory that the current share price — hostage to tungsten price swings and regulatory headlines — may not fully reflect.
For now, Almonty's stock remains a news-driven vehicle, its daily direction tethered to the ebb and flow of global tungsten prices and the regulatory currents emanating from Washington. The ore stockpile in Sangdong will keep the plant fed for the next two and a half months. Whether investor patience holds out that long is another question.
