Almonty's Tungsten Price Windfall Masks a Production Story Still in Its Infancy
Published on 08/17/2026 at 19:51 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers look almost too good to be true: a 498 percent jump in quarterly revenue, a tungsten price that has multiplied nearly sevenfold, and a cash pile now exceeding C$1.2 billion. Yet Almonty Industries' own chief executive is using his August 16 shareholder letter to sound a warning about supply, not demand.
Lewis Black's central argument is that the tungsten market's problem isn't a lack of buyers — it's a lack of available material. Strategic stockpiles are shrinking, semiconductor manufacturers are scrambling for supply, and the gap between announced mining projects and actual production keeps widening. It's a structural bottleneck that plays directly into Almonty's hands as its flagship Sangdong mine in South Korea moves through commissioning.
The Revenue Surge That Doesn't Yet Include Sangdong
Almonty's second-quarter 2026 results, released against this backdrop, show revenue climbing to C$43.0 million from C$7.2 million in the year-earlier period — a 498 percent increase and a 69 percent sequential jump from the C$25.4 million posted in Q1. The engine behind that growth: the European APT reference price for tungsten, which has surged from roughly US$453 per MTU to approximately US$3,075 — a near sevenfold appreciation.
What makes those figures particularly striking is what they don't include. The quarter's results were still driven predominantly by the Panasqueira mine in Portugal. Sangdong remained in its commissioning and ramp-up phase at period-end, meaning the flagship operation's full contribution has yet to appear in the financial statements.
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The market, however, is already pricing in that potential. The stock climbed 9.53 percent over the weekend, extending a run that has taken shares from around US$13 to above US$15 in a matter of days. Traders now eye resistance at US$15.50 to US$16.00, with a six-to-twelve-month target zone of US$18 to US$20. Over the past twelve months, the shares have gained 159 percent; year-to-date, they're up 67 percent.
Analysts and the $800 Million Catalyst
D.A. Davidson has been among the most vocal bulls. The bank reaffirmed its buy rating with a US$33 price target — an increase from US$25 just weeks earlier — following an expanded offtake agreement and a virtual roadshow with Black. Analyst Matt Summerville cited progress at Sangdong, a potential collaboration with the U.S. government, a solid balance sheet, and record tungsten prices as reasons for his optimism.
That balance sheet was transformed by an US$800 million convertible bond issuance, which lifted Almonty's cash position to approximately C$1.23 billion as of June 30. Management plans to deploy the capital across multiple projects simultaneously rather than sequentially: the Phase II expansion at Sangdong, a tungsten oxide facility in South Korea, the Gentung project in Montana, and an expansion at Panasqueira in Portugal.
The financing has also brought dilution risk into focus. In August, Almonty filed shelf registrations permitting the potential issuance of common shares worth roughly US$246.79 million, partly earmarked for employee equity programs — a pattern that has accompanied the company's expansion phase throughout.
A Two-Exchange Exit Streamlines the Listing Structure
While operations accelerate, Almonty is consolidating its public market footprint. The company voluntarily delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange at the close of trading on July 31, 2026. Its departure from the Australian Securities Exchange follows, effective September 1, with the CHESS Depositary Interests ceasing on August 28. Those CDIs represented only about 0.80 percent of outstanding shares as of July 14.
Management frames the moves as a response to trading patterns rather than strategic repositioning: the bulk of daily volume now flows through the Nasdaq, where the stock trades under "ALM," with a secondary listing in Frankfurt under "ALI1."
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The Valuation Question That Lingers
For all the momentum, Almonty's transition from development story to operating producer remains incomplete on one crucial metric: profitability. The balance sheet still shows negative earnings, and the stock's elevated valuation multiples leave little room for operational missteps.
The coming quarters will test whether Sangdong's ramp-up translates into the hard numbers that matter — throughput rates, unit costs, and margin improvement. With tungsten prices at multi-year highs and Western governments seeking alternatives to Chinese supply chains, Almonty has positioned itself as a strategic source for defense and high-tech industries. Whether the market's current enthusiasm proves justified will depend on how quickly the mine's output turns promise into profit.
