Almonty's Two-Speed Rally: Record Cash, Delisting Decisions, and the Question of Whether Tungsten's Momentum Holds
Published on 09/09/2026 at 15:02 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The tungsten producer Almonty Industries has spent the summer reshaping both its balance sheet and its public-market footprint, and the result is a stock that has tripled in value over the past year while leaving two of its three home exchanges behind. The company's decision to delist from the Toronto Stock Exchange in late July and the Australian Securities Exchange at the start of September — following the suspension of its CHESS Depositary Interests in late August — leaves Nasdaq as its sole listing venue. For a company that entered the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices at the end of June, the consolidation is less a retreat than a strategic focus on the exchange where US benchmark-driven capital pools reside.
That capital has already arrived in force. Almonty closed the second quarter with 1.23 billion Canadian dollars in cash as of June 30, a dramatic leap from the 268.4 million Canadian dollars on hand at year-end 2025. The war chest was built through an oversubscribed offering of convertible notes worth 800 million US dollars, carrying a 2.25 percent coupon and maturing in 2031, with underwriters fully exercising an additional 100 million US dollar option. The financing speaks to institutional conviction in the Sangdong mine in South Korea, the project positioned at the heart of Western efforts to build tungsten supply chains independent of Chinese dominance.
The operational picture lends weight to that conviction. Second-quarter revenue reached 43.0 million Canadian dollars, up 498 percent year over year, propelled by record tungsten prices. Net income swung to 181.8 million Canadian dollars from a loss of 58.2 million Canadian dollars in the prior-year period, while adjusted EBITDA turned positive at 17.6 million Canadian dollars, reversing a negative 4.8 million Canadian dollars. Since July, the processing plant at Sangdong has been operating in throughput mode, marking the next phase of the mine's ramp-up. Management changes have accompanied the operational progress: Jorge Beristain took over as chief financial officer on June 1, succeeding Brian Fox, who departed in early May.
The market has rewarded the trajectory handsomely. Shares have gained 108 percent since the start of the year and 335 percent over twelve months. On Tuesday, the stock climbed 9.2 percent to 16.52 euros, adding to a weekly gain of 8.3 percent, though no fresh corporate announcement accompanied that move. The current price sits roughly 20 percent below the 52-week high of 20.61 euros reached in April, while remaining 349 percent above the year-ago low from September.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Yet the rally has also attracted a fresh wave of professional scrutiny that cuts both ways. Jefferies initiated coverage on September 2 with a buy rating and a price target of 26.25 US dollars, framing Almonty's role in building Western tungsten supply chains as a central investment thesis. Days later, on September 7, the Ohio Public Employees Retirement System disclosed a new position of 109,121 shares valued at approximately 1.81 million US dollars. Two independent signals — one from a sell-side house, one from an institutional buyer — now point in the same direction.
The stock's recent run began well before those endorsements, however. An expanded offtake agreement for Sangdong roughly a month ago drove shares up 23.9 percent, and a share buyback program announced about two weeks ago contributed another 3.1 percent. Those catalysts have now been absorbed into the price, leaving investors to weigh whether the institutional support marks a durable foundation or a temporary tailwind.
The central debate hinges on the nature of the current tungsten shortage. In early September, a US export ban on tungsten scrap took effect, widely discussed as a tailwind for Western producers like Almonty. If the supply-chain realignment proves structural and multi-year, sustained high valuation levels find justification in hard data such as offtake agreements and pricing. If the scarcity fades as a short-term sentiment phenomenon, the rally could lose its footing.
The bear case centers on how far the stock has already traveled. With a 30-day gain of 36 percent and a twelve-month advance of more than threefold, the valuation has moved well beyond its starting point. The consensus price target of roughly 27 US dollars from five analysts, circulating on September 1, reflects aggregated estimates rather than any single fresh catalyst. Volatility of 76 percent on a 30-day basis underscores how sharply the stock can move in either direction should the narrative shift.
The current price of 16.16 euros sits 21 percent above the 50-day moving average, a level that suggests some near-term overheating. A pullback of roughly 22 percent from the 52-week high could prove to be a pause rather than a reversal if new industrial demand signals emerge and additional institutional buyers follow Ohio's lead. Conversely, if the export ban proves less consequential than anticipated or the pace of new offtake agreements slows, the recent retreat could mark the beginning of a deeper correction.
The next concrete test for investors will be whether more institutions step forward and whether additional analysts issue fresh assessments. For now, Almonty's story operates on two levels: the operational, where Sangdong is coming online and capital flows at record levels, and the symbolic, where a Canadian mining company has left its home exchanges to trade where the investors who believe in strategic metals' future are concentrated. Whether that bet pays off ultimately depends less on the listing venue than on whether Sangdong delivers what the balance sheet already promises.
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