Almonty's Valuation Debate Takes Center Stage After Stifel and Goldman Set Diverging Targets
Published on 09/28/2026 at 12:50 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Almonty Industries has drawn a sharply divided reception from Wall Street this week, with two fresh analyst initiations landing on consecutive days and pointing in opposite directions. Stifel kicked off coverage on Friday with a Buy rating and a $25.00 price target, while Goldman Sachs had already stepped in on Thursday with a Neutral stance and a $13.00 target.
The market sided with the bulls, at least initially. The stock closed Friday's session on European trading venues at EUR 12.09, a gain of 11 percent on the day. That advance extends the year-to-date rally to 52 percent, though the shares have since surrendered some ground, slipping 2.3 percent to EUR 11.76 in the latest session.
Two Houses, Two Very Different Reads
The gap between the two targets reflects genuine disagreement over how quickly the tungsten producer can convert its operational momentum into steady output. Goldman's cautious posture rests on expectations of normalizing tungsten prices, according to media reports, combined with a view that the ramp-up at the Sangdong mine may proceed more gradually than some market participants anticipate.
Stifel takes the sunnier view, treating the start of production as a key catalyst capable of drawing fresh buying interest. D.A. Davidson had already staked out bullish territory earlier, with analyst Matt Summerville upgrading the stock on September 15, citing the company's strengthened position in the Western tungsten supply chain and its strategic partnership in Rwanda.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
That split captures a familiar moment for a resource developer: the groundwork is laid, but the operational execution still has to prove itself in day-to-day running.
Contracted Demand Underpins the Story
What both camps can agree on is that Almonty has assembled an unusually deep book of binding offtake arrangements. The centerpiece is a revised agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders covering 4,410,000 MTU over 21 years from first delivery, with a contractual minimum of 210,000 MTU annually once the ramp-up phase concludes. That locks in the overwhelming majority of Phase I output.
The Korean project itself has cleared a critical regulatory hurdle. South Korean authorities issued the inspection certificates confirming commercial operation of the processing and crushing facilities at Sangdong, formally authorizing the mine to move into commercial tungsten production.
A second pillar comes from Europe. Roughly two weeks ago, Almonty signed a multi-year offtake deal with Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten AG, a subsidiary of Sandvik, covering at least approximately 1,720 tonnes of contained WO? recovered from tailings reprocessing at the Los Santos mine in Spain. The arrangement includes a conditional advance payment of USD 3.0 million for the offtake rights.
Rwanda Adds a Third Leg
Beyond Korea and Spain, the company is pushing ahead with African operations through a binding partnership in Rwanda. Under the structure, the Rwandan state holds 25 percent of Almonty Rwanda, with Almonty retaining 75 percent. In return, the country contributes the Shyorongi exploration concession along with a mineral processing license.
Taken together, the three projects give Almonty additional feedstock sources and tie industrial buyers directly into its supply chain — a diversification that bulls see as underpinning the valuation, and that skeptics argue is already reflected in the share price after this year's run.
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