Almonty: Sangdong Restart Meets a Cooling Tungsten Tape
Published on 10/17/2026 at 12:30 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Almonty has two clocks running at once, and they are not ticking in step. One measures physical progress at its South Korean mine; the other tracks a tungsten market where prices have been slipping and buyers have gone quiet. Oppenheimer weighed both on Thursday and decided the second clock warranted a lower valuation yardstick — trimming its price target on the stock to $19 from $25 while keeping its "Outperform" rating intact.
The cut, made by analyst Ian Zaffino, rested on lower valuation multiples among comparable companies rather than on the retreat in tungsten prices, a distinction worth holding onto. It reflects a more cautious measuring stick, not a withdrawal of the positive investment case.
A Price Signal With an Asterisk
The market data itself is mixed. European offers for ammonium paratungstate (APT) ranged between $2,500 and $3,100 per mtu this week, according to media reports, though completed deals were few and far between. That thin transaction volume limits how much the offer range really tells you: it shows the terms at which material was pitched, not necessarily where business actually cleared. Downstream buyers, meanwhile, have been seasonally slow to commit.
Further upstream, the picture tightens. Oppenheimer described the supply of tungsten concentrate as strained — meaning softer APT quotes should not be read as a broad easing of raw-material availability. The concentrate market and the APT market are pulling in different directions.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Chinese pricing tells a similar story of retreat. The reference price for 65% wolframite concentrate stood at 302,000 yuan per standard tonne on Thursday, down 75,000 yuan per standard tonne over the course of the month.
What the Mine Has Actually Done
Against that backdrop, Sangdong's operational news offers the counterweight. Almonty declared the mine commercially operational on Tuesday and said the second expansion phase is moving forward, with programs added at Los Santos and Rwanda to bring additional supply to market at short notice. Industry media reported on 10 October that the company had produced tungsten at Sangdong for the first time since 1993, a milestone reached at the end of September.
Commercial status and delivered metal are separate matters, however. In a company post, Almonty said the first commercial tungsten shipment from the mine is slated to go out on 24 October — a plan, not a completed voyage.
The stock slipped 2.7% yesterday, though neither source establishes a direct link between that move and either the analyst decision or the price reports.
The Question Investors Are Really Asking
Can operational momentum outweigh a softer metal market? That is the crux, and it resists a single answer. A production milestone and its financial effect have to be judged apart — the industry price provides a frame, but it does not substitute for company-specific analysis. If Almonty keeps delivering credible progress while prices steady, the mine's execution could carry more weight than sector worries. If demand stays weak and the price slide continues, investors will demand more evidence that the progress pays.
The next fixed date on the calendar is Almonty's investor day on 19 October 2026, when management will address the tungsten market, price trends and operations at each mine in a live webcast. Whether that session draws a clearer line between production gains and economic returns may matter more than either the price target or the shipment date on its own.
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