Apple's China Surge Meets a Wall Street Split Ahead of November 2 Earnings
Published on 10/28/2026 at 04:10 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Apple's iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are off to a faster start than their predecessors, but the headline numbers hide a widening gap between regions. Counterpoint Research reported today that worldwide sales of the two models ran 3.1% above the same period a year earlier in the first three weeks after launch. In China alone, the gain reached 29%.
That divergence matters more than the global figure. Counterpoint attributes the strong Chinese debut largely to better device availability and higher prices on competing Android flagships — a reminder that supply conditions and the competitive landscape, not just enthusiasm for Apple's new features, helped drive the increase. In the US and Japan, sales actually fell; Counterpoint cites exchange-rate-driven price hikes as a drag in Japan. A successful China launch, in other words, does not yet amount to a broad-based upswing across key markets.
A Bull Case Built on Replacement Demand
HSBC analyst Nicolas Cote-Colisson reaffirmed his buy rating and $366 price target today. He expects revenue growth of 10.6% for the quarter about to be reported, down from 16.4% in the prior period. The bank describes demand for the iPhone 18 lineup as strong and calls early sales of the foldable iPhone Duo promising. Apple's AI features and product pipeline, in HSBC's view, could set off a larger replacement cycle — a possibility rather than a confirmed trend.
The company added to that pipeline yesterday with new Macs built on the M6 chip, alongside a fresh iMac using the same silicon and extra AI capabilities for Apple Creator Studio, including updates to Logic Pro, Keynote, Pages and Numbers. The claimed performance gains in AI workloads fit the HSBC thesis, though only future sales figures will show whether they translate into additional purchases. An iPad mini with an OLED display and the A20 Pro, unveiled Monday, rounds out the refreshed lineup.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Apple?
Loop Capital Sees the Other Side
Loop Capital offers a more cautious read. The firm downgraded Apple to hold from buy on October 20, pointing to supply-chain checks and concern over iPhone shipment shortfalls, rising memory costs and the stock's rich valuation. Its price target now sits at $330. That reasoning carries more weight than the target itself: it flags a concrete business risk that new Macs and software features do not automatically resolve.
The timing sharpens the distinction. Apple is due to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on November 2, before the new devices reach stores on November 6. Pre-orders for the hardware were set to open today. Announcement, order window and eventual demand are separate stages, and the actual market reception cannot be inferred from orders placed now. Consensus expects revenue of $113.23 billion and earnings per share of $1.98.
What the Quarter Can and Cannot Show
The reporting period closed in September, before the iPhone Duo went on sale, so demand for the foldable will chiefly shape the outlook rather than the results themselves. Apple confirmed yesterday that a small number of those devices suffer from display problems — a detail investors will weigh against HSBC's optimistic read on the Duo.
Shares rose 1.4% to €312.20 as investors await the report, putting the product offensive against an already friendly chart. The bullish scenario does not require every launch to deliver an immediate earnings jump; it would be enough for the numbers to avoid confirming the feared weakness while the new lineup opens fresh demand prospects. The bear case gives Loop Capital's shipment worries more room — if the results or management commentary point to iPhone delivery problems, investors may set the product news aside for now.
Either way, the next leg hinges on whether Apple can turn positive demand signals into a convincing outlook. China is providing the support; the declines in the US and Japan remain the central caveat.
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Apple Stock: New Analysis - 28 October
Fresh Apple information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
