ASML Pushes Back on US Export Curbs While Lining Up 2027 Price Increases
Published on 10/17/2026 at 21:30 | Editorial boerse-global.de
ASML is fighting a proposed US clampdown on sales of DUV systems to China, arguing the rules could backfire by speeding up the development of rival Chinese technology. Finance chief Roger Dassen issued the warning on Wednesday, according to Reuters, framing the Match Act as a strategic risk rather than a simple loss of market access. His point is not that Chinese competitors have already caught up — it is that tighter restrictions could accelerate their progress.
That distinction matters for anyone weighing the stock. The measures are still a proposal, so Dassen's remarks amount to a stance against a policy in the pipeline, not a response to restrictions already in force. Shareholders now have two things to watch on the export front: the potential hit to sales, and the longer-term question of whether curbs end up nurturing new rivals. Dassen put the second concern at the center of his criticism.
A Record Quarter as the Backdrop
The political fight is unfolding while ASML is enjoying unusually strong profitability. On Wednesday the company reported record third-quarter 2026 revenue of EUR 11.7 billion, with a gross margin of 57.5% and net profit of EUR 5.0 billion. Those figures describe business already booked. Dassen's warning, by contrast, looks at how policy could reshape the competitive landscape down the road — and a strong quarter does not by itself answer that objection.
Guidance for the fourth quarter of 2026 points to revenue of between EUR 14.2 billion and EUR 15.2 billion. That is a forecast, not recorded business.
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Pricing Power Kicks In From 2027
Separately, Reuters reported on Thursday that ASML plans to raise prices starting in 2027, with the full effect landing in 2028. The timing is the crux: the start of the increases and their complete impact do not coincide, so investors need to keep the two apart. The announcement does not support any claim of an immediate jump in earnings.
The pricing plans sit alongside robust customer demand, which Reuters said could require expanding capacity beyond current plans. Higher prices and extra delivery capacity are two different ways of turning that demand into revenue — though a further build-out is not the same as a decision already made.
J.P. Morgan Trims Its Target
Analyst reaction came with a caveat of its own. J.P. Morgan kept its "Overweight" rating on ASML on Thursday but lowered its price target. A broadly positive rating, in other words, does not mean the house leaves its valuation untouched. No rationale for the cut was given, and nothing ties it to the pricing plans.
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The stock also came under pressure as part of a wider selloff in the tech sector. Several large chipmakers fell, according to media reports, without any fresh ASML-specific announcement explaining the move. Two threads therefore need to be kept separate: the weaker market backdrop and the price increases that will only take effect later.
Demand Stretches Years Ahead
Reuters also reported Wednesday that ASML is in customer talks about equipment orders for 2029 and 2030, conversations the company attributed to demand driven by artificial intelligence. That puts two very different developments side by side — order discussions reaching far into the future, and concern about competition accelerated by policy. Neither the demand picture nor the latest results is enough on their own for an investment decision. Dassen's warning concerns the conditions under which ASML will have to defend its technological lead going forward.
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