ASML's High-NA Headwind Fails to Dampen a Quarter of Record Orders and Analyst Cheers
Published on 08/17/2026 at 07:31 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The lithography giant's share price barely blinked on Friday even as its two most important customers confirmed they would push adoption of next-generation High-NA EUV tools out to the 1-nanometer node — a milestone Bloomberg and Wccftech peg at roughly 2030. TSMC and Samsung Electronics cited per-unit costs of around $400 million and a pivot toward advanced packaging and simplified process flows at the 2nm and 1.4nm nodes as the rationale for the delay.
The stock closed the session at €1,590.00, down 1.0% on the day, though still up 5.4% for the week and roughly 9% shy of its 52-week high of €1,748.00. Wall Street Zen responded to the High-NA news by downgrading the shares from "Buy" to "Hold" on Friday.
The Bull Case Remains Intact
That measured market reaction speaks to the strength of the counter-narrative. ASML's second-quarter print showed net sales of €9.33 billion and net profit of €2.9 billion, and management guided third-quarter revenue to between €11 billion and €12 billion with gross margin of 55% to 57%. Reuters attributed the momentum to persistent demand for advanced logic and memory technology.
The company went a step further, lifting its full-year 2026 outlook to net sales of €43 billion to €45 billion, accompanied by a gross margin forecast of 54% to 56%.
Analysts have lined up behind the revised trajectory. Goldman Sachs added the stock to its European Conviction List in early August, with analyst Alex Duval pointing to improved visibility on capacity expansion and robust order intake across logic chips and DRAM. Bernstein reaffirmed its "Outperform" rating and €2,500 price target on August 10, with analyst David Dai emphasizing the company's intact growth profile. Bank of America Securities also reiterated a "Buy" on the same day, setting a €2,452.00 target; analyst Didier Scemama argued the company's lithographic edge remains secure despite emerging Chinese competition in the DUV segment.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ASML Holding?
Institutional Money Tells Two Stories
The second quarter's 13F filings reveal a notable divergence among large holders. Oppenheimer Asset Management trimmed its stake by 6.3%, leaving it with 35,581 shares worth roughly $70.8 million. Tiger Management, under Lee Ainslie, was far more aggressive, shedding 257,397 shares — a 99.6% reduction — while New Paradigm Capital Management cut its position by 83.3%.
Temasek Holdings moved in the opposite direction, increasing its ASML exposure on Thursday. Singapore's sovereign wealth fund framed the company as a critical bottleneck in the semiconductor supply chain amid growing scarcity of AI infrastructure.
Capacity Plans and Capital Returns Roll On
Operationally, the High-NA delay hasn't dented near-term demand. ASML confirmed in early August that virtually all EUV orders for 2027 are already secured, and the company is exploring plans to expand EUV production capacity by 30% in both 2027 and 2028 to serve Intel, TSMC, and Samsung.
The €12 billion buyback program continues apace: between August 3 and 7, ASML repurchased 267,460 of its own shares for roughly €390.7 million, following approximately €391 million in the final week of July. The company also paid a quarterly dividend of $2.1507 per share in early August to shareholders on record as of July 28, alongside a first 2026 quarterly dividend of €1.88 per share paid on August 5. Holders of Brazilian depositary receipts received 0.16 Brazilian reais per certificate on August 11.
Context Worth Watching
The competitive landscape isn't entirely static. Startup Source Foundry raised an additional $400 million from hedge fund Situational Awareness, bringing the fund's total investment to $500 million and valuing the young company at roughly $5 billion. That's industry color for now rather than a direct threat to ASML's franchise.
The next test comes on October 14, when ASML reports third-quarter results — the first full read on how the deferred High-NA timeline translates into the order book. For the moment, the combination of raised guidance, secured EUV capacity, and a steady stream of analyst endorsements appears to outweigh the strategic caution emanating from Taiwan and South Korea.
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