ASML's Rally Gains Fresh Legs as Chip-Equipment Peers Signal Unbroken AI Spending
Published on 08/18/2026 at 02:54 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Dutch lithography giant is riding a wave of sector-wide momentum that shows no signs of cresting. ASML shares advanced 2.3 percent on Monday to close at 1,626.20 euros, a move driven less by company-specific news than by a broad semiconductor rally that has lifted the entire equipment supply chain.
The catalyst came from across the Atlantic. Applied Materials, the US-based chip-equipment maker, reported third-quarter revenue of $9.12 billion for its fiscal 2026 — a 25 percent year-on-year jump — and raised its full-year outlook on the back of exceptional artificial intelligence demand. For ASML, whose EUV lithography systems sit at the heart of advanced chip manufacturing, the read-through was unambiguous: the industry's capital expenditure cycle remains firmly intact.
That optimism was reinforced earlier in the month by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., ASML's largest customer. On August 11, TSMC posted July net revenue of roughly 467.58 billion Taiwan dollars, up 44.7 percent from a year earlier — a signal that demand for ASML's flagship EUV tools remains robust where it matters most.
A Stock Trading Well Above Its Trend Lines
The shares now sit 4.3 percent above their 50-day moving average of 1,559.06 euros, a technical marker that suggests the near-term uptrend is holding. The longer-term picture is even more striking: the stock trades 31 percent above its 200-day average and has climbed 76 percent since the start of the year. Over a twelve-month horizon, the shares have roughly two-and-a-half times in value.
Still, the rally has brought the stock within 7.0 percent of its 52-week high of 1,748.00 euros, reached in late June. At current levels, some investors are questioning whether the run has gotten ahead of itself — a debate reflected in the divergent moves of institutional holders.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ASML Holding?
Buybacks Continue Unabated
Management, for its part, appears to see value in the shares even after the recent surge. Between August 10 and 14, ASML repurchased 248,818 of its own shares at weighted average prices ranging from 1,532.79 to 1,596.57 euros, a total outlay of roughly 390.6 million euros. That followed the prior week's buyback of 266,460 shares at prices between 1,412.90 and 1,506.07 euros.
The steady pace of repurchases — part of a program covering 2026 through 2028 that has already seen 1.1 billion euros deployed — signals that the board considers the equity attractive despite the substantial gains already banked. Shareholders also collected an interim dividend of 1.88 euros per share on August 5.
The Fundamentals Behind the Frenzy
The rally's foundation was laid in mid-July, when ASML reported second-quarter net revenue of 9.3 billion euros, beating the top end of its own guidance. Gross margin climbed to 54 percent, buoyed by high-margin components in the installed base management business. The company responded by sharply raising its full-year 2026 outlook, now targeting net revenue between 43 and 45 billion euros, up from a previous range of 36 to 40 billion euros.
For the third quarter, ASML guided to net revenue of 11 to 12 billion euros with gross margin between 55 and 57 percent. To meet the rising demand, the company plans to expand capacity for low-NA EUV systems by 30 percent in 2027 relative to the roughly 65 units planned for 2026. Deep-ultraviolet immersion capacity is slated for a similar 30 percent increase over the approximately 130 units earmarked for next year, with the possibility of further additions in 2028.
High-NA Crosses Into Production
A technological milestone has reinforced the bullish case. Intel Foundry has begun volume production of selected Core Ultra Series 3 processors — codenamed "Panther Lake" — using its 18A process technology, which relies on ASML's High-NA EUV systems. The development confirms that the most advanced and expensive generation of ASML's lithography tools has moved from pilot phase into industrial reality.
The news arrives as a welcome counterweight to a concern that surfaced roughly two weeks ago: reports that a Shanghai-based, state-backed company had started mass-producing domestic DUV immersion tools. That development initially weighed on the stock, but the shares have since recovered 14.4 percent, suggesting investors view the Chinese competition as a manageable threat given the technological gap at advanced process nodes.
ASML Holding at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Institutional Positions Diverge
Recent 13F filings paint a mixed picture among institutional investors. Caitong International Asset Management increased its stake by 611.1 percent during the second quarter, now holding shares worth $20.98 million. Donaldson Capital Management went further, boosting its position by 3,116.1 percent to 6,207 shares.
Others have headed for the exits. AlTi Global cut its holding by 76.3 percent over the same period, leaving just 395 shares. Such moves are hardly unusual for a company of ASML's scale, but they underscore how differently asset managers are weighing the valuation after such a powerful run.
The next major test arrives on October 14, when ASML reports third-quarter results. Until then, the stock is likely to remain tethered to the fortunes of its customers and competitors across the semiconductor ecosystem — as Monday's reaction to Applied Materials' numbers made abundantly clear.
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