ASML's Two-Front Story: Memory Boom Fuels EUV Demand While BofA Warns of Hybrid Bonding Ambitions
Published on 10/08/2026 at 16:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
ASML Holding finds itself at the center of two converging narratives this week — one bullish, one disruptive — as the Dutch lithography giant prepares to report third-quarter results on October 14.
On the demand side, the picture could hardly be brighter. TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, lifted its third-quarter revenue by 50% to NT$1.49 trillion. Samsung, meanwhile, has guided toward an operating profit surge of more than 780% for the same period. Those numbers translate directly into fab utilization — and, by extension, into orders for the advanced lithography equipment that ASML alone supplies at the cutting edge.
The buildout of global data-center capacity shows no sign of slowing, and the factories churning out specialty processors and memory chips need the most modern lithography systems available. SK hynix has signaled its intention to install 20 Low-NA EUV systems for memory production over the next two years, a commitment that underscores how demand has spread well beyond traditional logic chips. ASML is responding with a targeted capacity expansion: roughly 65 Low-NA deliveries are planned for 2026, with a further 30% increase in Low-NA output targeted for 2027.
BofA Flags Hybrid Bonding Threat to BE Semiconductor
Not all of this week's attention has focused on ASML's core business. According to a Bloomberg report, Bank of America has raised the possibility of ASML entering the hybrid bonding segment — a move that prompted the bank to downgrade sector peer BE Semiconductor Industries to Neutral and slash its price target by nearly half. Analysts view a potential ASML expansion into this specialized area as a tangible threat to BE Semiconductor's future growth.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ASML Holding?
The discussion matters because ASML has built its market position primarily on EUV and DUV lithography systems. An entry into complementary semiconductor technologies could open additional room for operational growth — and redraw competitive boundaries in the process.
Analyst Conviction Holds Ahead of Q3
J.P. Morgan's Sandeep Deshpande has pointed to the possibility that ASML could issue guidance for fiscal 2027 exceeding market expectations when it reports next week, citing reliable visibility on EUV and DUV orders. The U.S. bank rates the stock Overweight with a price target of EUR 2,100. UBS also recommends buying, with a target of EUR 2,350. Both firms ground their confidence in ASML's pricing power and its technological lead over rivals.
Investors will be watching closely to see how profitability evolves as production capacity ramps up.
China Restrictions and Buyback Activity
Geopolitical uncertainty remains a wildcard. Roughly two weeks ago, ASML's management warned of possible further export restrictions toward China; the stock has gained 2.6% since that warning. Washington is debating tighter rules on older DUV systems, and market observers note that such measures could weigh on future shipments to Asia. The Centre for Technology & Statecraft published a study examining Chinese chipmakers' DUV inventories and advocated for broader export controls.
ASML continues to execute its announced capital measures regardless. Under its share buyback program, the company repurchased 277,000 of its own shares between September 28 and October 2.
Market Snapshot
In Wednesday's session, ASML closed at EUR 1,613.40, a decline of 0.9%. That level leaves the stock 7.7% below its 52-week high. In today's trading, the shares are down another 1.0% at EUR 1,597.40. Even so, the year-to-date picture remains striking: the stock has climbed 73% since January, reflecting the broader industry upswing. With strong signals from Asia's leading customers providing a solid foundation, next week's quarterly report will test whether that momentum can carry through.
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