ASML's Vietnam Order Stalls as ING Flags a Dutch Economy Leaning Too Hard on One Company

Vietnam's ambition to build its own chip fabrication base is running into a familiar obstacle: the machines it needs come from Veldhoven. A supply agreement between state-owned military conglomerate Viettel and ASML for deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems has been hanging fire for months, Reuters reported, putting the Southeast Asian nation's target of starting pilot production at its first chip fab in 2027 in jeopardy.

The project, sited in the Hoa Lac high-tech park near Hanoi, carries a price tag of roughly USD 1.3 billion. Ground was broken at the start of the year, with completion envisaged by the end of 2027 and full operation by 2030 after a pilot phase. The missing ASML contract now ranks alongside the builder's lack of experience and administrative hold-ups in releasing state funds as a principal threat to that timetable. ASML declined to comment on the ongoing negotiations; Viettel said the venture was proceeding according to plan.

For the Dutch group, the standoff cuts two ways. It illustrates the global rush by emerging and industrialized economies alike to establish their own production capacity — and, just as plainly, how tightly those national initiatives depend on equipment from the Netherlands.

ING Puts ASML at Up to 1.6% of Dutch Output

Just how dominant that position has become is the subject of an analysis published today by ING. The bank's economists reckon ASML could account directly for as much as 1.6% of total Dutch economic output this year, up from 1.3% in the previous year. Once domestic suppliers and investment are folded in, the company's economic footprint swells to 2.2% of gross value added.

The economists caution, however, that concentration risk is mounting, drawing a historical parallel with Nokia in Finland. Skills shortages and a lack of available land are among the pressure points they identify — and above all geopolitical restrictions. US regulations already curb exports of advanced machines to China, while further initiatives could tighten Dutch export rules even more.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ASML Holding?

Citi Lifts Its Target, Jefferies Trims Its Own

Sell-side opinion on the stock is split. Citigroup raised its price target to EUR 2,300 from EUR 2,200, while Jefferies turned more cautious, cutting its target to EUR 1,590 from EUR 1,650 and keeping a "Hold" rating.

The shares were trading 1.5% higher at EUR 1,425.20 today. That leaves the stock up 55% since the start of the year, though still 18% below its 52-week high.

Musk's Terafab Talk Is a Customer's Promise, Not an Order

Adding to the demand picture, Elon Musk has held out the prospect of accelerated deliveries from ASML and other equipment makers for the Terafab project of Tesla and SpaceX. According to a Bloomberg report on October 20, Musk said the companies had brought those shipments forward. He is aiming for large-volume chip production at Terafab in the third to fourth quarter of 2028 — a schedule he himself described as extremely ambitious. Faster tool deliveries would be one building block toward that goal, not a guarantee of a successful production start.

The provenance of the claim matters. The details on pulled-forward deliveries come from Musk, not from any announcement by ASML. Investors should therefore distinguish between a customer's project target and a confirmed business expectation on the part of the supplier; no additional revenue contribution for ASML can be quantified from Musk's remarks.

Longer-term demand extends well beyond Terafab. Reuters reported roughly two weeks ago that customers were already seeking orders for later years, while ASML's planned capacity is insufficient to meet demand in full. The ambitious customer-side build-out thus faces a limited supply of tools.

The Numbers That Actually Anchor the Valuation

ASML's own figures offer firmer ground than any single customer's timeline. On October 14 the company reported third-quarter 2026 net sales of EUR 11.7 billion and a net profit of EUR 5.0 billion. For the closing quarter of 2026 it guided to revenue of between EUR 14.2 billion and EUR 15.2 billion, and it lifted its full-year 2026 sales forecast to EUR 44–45 billion.

According to Reuters, the strong orders and long-term customer demand eased concerns about fading momentum in AI investment. Musk's Terafab comments fit that demand narrative. For investors, the distinction remains the essential one: an ambitious project plan signals need, while ASML's results and guidance make the company's actual economic trajectory tangible.

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