Aurubis Faces a Two-Sided Test: Richmond's Ramp-Up and a Record Copper Premium
Published on 10/28/2026 at 14:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Two hedge funds have trimmed their bearish bets on Aurubis, but the move says little about whether the copper producer's toughest operational challenge is easing. Linden Advisors LP and SIH Partners, LLLP were among the funds that reduced their disclosed short positions, with SIH Partners cutting its stake to 1.19%, according to media reports from yesterday. Neither fund abandoned its wager against the stock — they simply scaled it back.
That distinction matters. The filings reveal neither the funds' motives nor any read-through on the underlying business. A smaller short position shifts the market backdrop slightly, but it does not answer the question investors actually care about: is the ramp-up at the Richmond plant getting under control?
Richmond Becomes the Decisive Variable
Deutsche Bank Research offered its own verdict roughly a week ago, lowering its price target on Aurubis from EUR 177 to EUR 169 while keeping a "Hold" rating ahead of quarterly results. Analyst Bastian Synagowitz pointed to a more demanding ramp-up in Richmond than previously assumed and cut his pre-tax profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027. The revision captured both the plant start-up and the earnings outlook for those two years.
Yet the same analyst still expects strong free cash flow. That combination — a robust cash inflow set against softer profit expectations — frames the core of the investment case. A healthy cash flow number alone would not settle matters; investors would also need evidence that Richmond's burdens are being contained rather than triggering further downgrades.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Aurubis?
A Record Premium Offers a Counterweight
On the bullish side of the ledger, Reuters reported on 14 October that Aurubis is offering customers a record premium of USD 347/t for refined copper in 2027. The company declined to comment on the figure but pointed to expected strong demand. An offered premium is a signal of intended terms, not proof they will be enforced — a distinction worth keeping in mind. Should demand expectations hold and the terms stick, confidence in the business outlook could firm up considerably. Combined with a better-managed Richmond ramp-up, that would form a more durable positive scenario.
The link between the two would be operational: friendlier sales conditions on one side, less uncertainty at the plant on the other. Only when both come together do the reduced short positions fit into a more convincing overall picture. On their own, they provide no such confirmation.
Sector Noise and a Hamburg Investment
Aurubis shares also came under pressure on 20 October, when reports of declining copper output at BHP and Anglo American triggered selling across the copper sector. Coverage at the time stressed that Aurubis, as a copper processor, is positioned differently from the mining operators. On that same day, the company announced that COO Tim Kurth had been elected to the board of the International Wrought Copper Council, where he will represent Aurubis's view on raw material supply.
At the Hamburg site, Aurubis has announced an investment in an automated facility to process metal-bearing intermediate products, with completion targeted for 2028. The project concerns processing at the existing Hamburg location.
What Could Tip the Balance
The negative scenario starts with Richmond struggling longer than expected. The already-lowered profit forecasts show the challenges have left their mark on at least one analyst's expectations. Fresh burdens could mean even strong free cash flow fails to fully offset disappointment on earnings. There is also the risk of treating the offered copper premium as a locked-in contribution — a demand made of customers and terms actually achieved are not the same thing, and the strong demand Aurubis anticipates remains an expectation rather than realized business.
Aurubis at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The recent decline in short positions offers no protection against new setbacks. Both named funds still hold positions, so neither an imminent escalation of selling pressure nor its end can be inferred.
The next concrete checkpoint is the quarterly report. Investors should focus on commentary around Richmond and on free cash flow development. The decisive confirmation has to come from the company itself — less uncertainty at the ramp-up, not merely fewer disclosed bets against the stock. Aurubis has also confirmed 2 December 2026 as the publication date for its 2025/26 annual report.
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