Aurubis Faces Its Toughest Test Yet as Richmond Delays Cloud a Stellar Earnings Run
Published on 08/06/2026 at 17:04 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers Aurubis just delivered were, by any measure, impressive. Operating pretax profit jumped 31 percent to EUR 374 million in the first nine months of fiscal 2025/26, while operating EBITDA climbed to EUR 570 million from EUR 462 million a year earlier. Group revenue expanded 29 percent to EUR 17.8 billion. Management responded by lifting guidance, now targeting the upper end of its EUR 425 million to EUR 525 million operating EBT range.
Investors, however, were having none of it. The shares slid 4.96 percent to EUR 182.20 on the day, as reports emerged of delays in ramping up the company's US recycling facility in Richmond. It is a classic collision between a growth narrative and execution risk — and it lands precisely in the business unit that has driven the biggest earnings improvement.
The Multimetal Recycling segment more than doubled its operating EBT to EUR 87 million over the nine-month stretch, up from EUR 36 million in the prior-year period, fueled by higher precious metal prices and improved processing fees. That momentum now faces a credibility test.
A Growth Agenda Nearly Complete
The Hamburg-based company has already deployed roughly 90 percent of its EUR 1.7 billion strategic investment program. The copper electrolysis expansion in Bulgaria, which will lift capacity by half to 340,000 tonnes, is on the cusp of phased commissioning and appears to be running on schedule. Richmond, by contrast, is delivering the one sour note in an otherwise solid investment track record.
The market's immediate reaction raises a straightforward question: is Richmond an isolated, temporary setback, or a warning sign for the entire recycling growth strategy? The answer will likely determine the stock's near-term direction. A 30-day annualized volatility reading of 41.42 percent suggests investors are on edge, ready to react sharply to new information.
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There is also the matter of positioning. Goldman Sachs trimmed its voting rights position in Aurubis to 11.88 percent on July 28, down from 11.99 percent — a modest reduction, but one that shows at least one major holder was paring exposure before the Richmond headlines even broke.
The Bull Case Holds — For Now
For optimists, the operational substance is hard to dismiss. Warburg Research reaffirmed its "Buy" rating on the stock following the nine-month results. If Richmond proves to be a manageable technical issue and the Bulgarian expansion comes online as promised, Aurubis will have delivered two of its three major growth levers on plan. The upgraded guidance would then hold, underpinned by a recycling segment that has more than doubled its contribution within a year.
The longer-term trend remains intact despite Thursday's pullback. The stock sits roughly 18.66 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 224.00, reached in June. Should Richmond concerns fade, a path back toward that level opens up.
What the Market Is Really Watching
Beyond the headline numbers, Aurubis has been benefiting from an unexpected tailwind: sulfuric acid. A byproduct of copper smelting, it is sold to fertilizer and chemical producers — and supply has tightened because the conflict in Iran is disrupting global logistics. A geopolitical event entirely unrelated to the energy transition has become a meaningful earnings driver for a European industrial group. Management cites high plant utilization, firmer copper and precious metal prices, and these stronger sulfuric acid revenues as the three pillars of recent performance.
For the current fiscal year, Aurubis has also refined its guidance for operating return on capital employed to a range of 10 to 12 percent — not a spectacular figure, but one that signals efficient capital deployment at a time of heavy investment.
The stock had already priced in much of this strength before the Richmond news. It closed Wednesday at EUR 191.70, up 1.43 percent on the day, and remains up 55.60 percent year to date — a rally that far exceeds what one might expect from a traditional copper smelter. Still, that leaves it 14.42 percent below its June peak, a gap that reflects the market's uncertainty about how much structural tailwind is already in the price.
The Road Ahead
Management fielded investor questions in an analyst conference call on Thursday afternoon. The next hard checkpoint comes with the publication of the audited annual report for fiscal 2025/26 on December 2 — or December 1, depending on which announcement one follows. Between now and then, the market will be watching whether Richmond remains a footnote or becomes a genuine drag on a strategy that has served Aurubis well.
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If the delay stays contained and the remaining pieces of the investment agenda — particularly Bulgaria — come online as planned, the upgraded guidance at the upper end of the EBT range looks realistic, and Thursday's selloff may well prove to be an overreaction to a single piece of news. But if further delays or cost overruns emerge in the recycling business, the market could reprice the entire growth story and put considerably more pressure on the shares.
The deeper question for investors is whether the factors driving Aurubis today — utilization, metal prices, sulfuric acid — represent a permanent shift or a fortunate alignment of circumstances. In an electrifying world economy, some of what looks like a windfall today may simply become tomorrow's baseline.
