Aurubis: Hedge Funds Trim Shorts as Record Premium Awaits Richmond Proof
Published on 10/28/2026 at 11:52 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Two hedge funds have pared back their bearish bets on Aurubis, yet the move says little about whether the copper producer's troubled Richmond plant is finally finding its feet. Linden Advisors LP and SIH Partners, LLLP were among the funds that reduced their disclosed short positions, according to media reports from yesterday, with SIH Partners cutting its stake to 1.19%. Both funds scaled back their wagers against the stock without abandoning them outright.
The filings offer no motive for the reductions and no read on the operating business. They shift the market backdrop slightly, but leave the central corporate question untouched: can Aurubis demonstrate that the challenges at Richmond are coming under control? Progress there would do more to support a more favorable view of the shares than any modest adjustment in individual trading positions.
Analysts Split on the Same Set of Facts
The upgrade camp and the cautious camp are looking at identical information and reaching different conclusions. AlphaValue/Baader Europe raised Aurubis to "Buy," a show of optimism that sits opposite Deutsche Bank Research's more guarded stance. Roughly a week ago, Deutsche Bank trimmed its price target to EUR 169 from EUR 177 while keeping its "Hold" rating.
Analyst Bastian Synagowitz pointed to a more demanding ramp-up than anticipated and cut pre-tax profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027. Even so, he expects strong free cash flow. That combination captures the heart of the investment case: the prospect of robust cash generation set against a softer earnings outlook. The gap between the two ratings matters less than what each is actually saying — one signals confidence, the other names a concrete operating risk.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Aurubis?
A Record Premium, With Strings Attached
Against that caution stands a tangible positive. Reuters reported on October 14 that Aurubis set its European copper premium for 2027 at a record USD 347 per tonne. The level is roughly 10% above the prior year's figure — an increase that should neither be dismissed nor equated with a matching rise in profit.
Aurubis declined to comment on the premium but pointed to expected strong demand. The offer signals the terms the company is aiming for, not proof that customers will accept them. Should demand expectations hold and the conditions be pushed through, confidence in the business outlook could firm. A demand forecast is not the same as booked business, and an offered premium is not the same as a realized one.
Richmond Is the Real Scorecard
For a more constructive assessment to hold, Aurubis would need to show that Richmond's difficulties are becoming more manageable. That single factor carries more weight than the retreat in short positions, which offers no protection against fresh setbacks — both named funds still hold their positions, so neither an imminent escalation of selling pressure nor its end can be inferred.
The already-lowered profit forecasts show the ramp-up has left its mark on at least one analyst house's expectations. Additional charges could overwhelm even strong free cash flow, leaving investors unable to look past disappointing earnings. What would tip the balance is operational: friendlier selling conditions on one side and less uncertainty at the plant on the other. Only when those two converge do the smaller short positions fit into a more convincing picture.
The Next Hard Data Point
Upcoming quarterly figures are the next concrete test. Investors should focus on commentary around Richmond and on free cash flow development. The decisive confirmation has to come from the company itself — less uncertainty on the ramp-up, rather than merely fewer disclosed bets against the stock. Until then, the record premium argues against an outright pessimistic reading, while Richmond remains too significant to wave aside on the strength of a fresh buy call.
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