BASF Draws a Line Under Evonik: Value for Shareholders or No Deal
Published on 11/06/2026 at 04:50 | Editorial boerse-global.de
BASF will not chase Evonik at any price. That was the message chief executive Markus Kamieth delivered ahead of the latest twist in the standoff, and it is the yardstick against which every further move on the takeover front will now be measured. According to a Reuters report dated 28 October, any transaction would only be pursued if it created value for BASF's own shareholders — a test that must hold up economically as well as strategically.
The stock finished yesterday at €55.62, a gain of 2.5%, as investors weighed the prospect of a strategic add-on against the earnings power BASF already has in house.
Evonik Says No — but Leaves the Door Ajar
Evonik rejected the improved offer on 30 October and declared it would not enter negotiations. At the same time, the group signalled a willingness to hold a purely informational, confidential exchange. Media reports put BASF's most recent bid at €24 per Evonik share, with a readiness to go higher having been discussed roughly two weeks earlier.
For shareholders, the arithmetic is straightforward: the more BASF's standalone business delivers, the more convincing any additional capital commitment has to be. A deal would look attractive only if its terms clear the bar Kamieth has set. If the two sides stay apart, BASF's own operating trajectory takes over as the dominant driver of valuation.
The Operating Case Is Doing the Heavy Lifting
That trajectory has strengthened considerably. BASF reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of €16.4 billion, up 14% year on year. EBITDA before special items reached €1.6 billion, 15% above the third quarter of 2025.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BASF?
The company raised its full-year guidance just over a week ago, and now expects EBITDA before special items of €7.4 billion to €7.8 billion for 2026, compared with a previous range of €6.9 billion to €7.7 billion. A bullish case rests on BASF hitting that outlook while keeping financial discipline on any acquisition.
Buyback Rolls On
Capital returns are already in motion. In its interim stock buyback report published Monday, BASF disclosed the purchase of 355,128 of its own shares between 26 and 30 October inclusive. Since the programme began on 3 August, the cumulative volume repurchased through 30 October stood at 7,595,230 shares.
Analysts Lift the Target, Keep Their Distance
The cautious stance on the sell side was on display midweek, when LBBW raised its price target to €57 from €56 while reaffirming its "Hold" rating. The move points to limited re-rating rather than outright enthusiasm — a combination that leaves little room for disappointment.
The risk case writes itself: if the operating improvement stalls while acquisition spending rises, the investment thesis weakens on two fronts at once. A pricier deal would only sharpen the scrutiny if its added benefit fails to justify the higher cost. Conversely, sticking to economically sound terms would cap that exposure.
Geismar Is the Next Marker
The near-term calendar offers a fresh read on the operating side. BASF has scheduled a press release for 11 November 2026 following the inauguration of its MDI plant in Geismar, and investors will be listening for how management frames the facility and its economic contribution. Further out, the company has flagged 26 February 2027 as its next financial date, when fourth-quarter 2026 results are due.
Between those two appointments, the question for shareholders stays the same: what would a transaction add that BASF cannot deliver on its own?
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