BASF's Tentative Approach Lifts Evonik Shares as RAG-Stiftung Weighs Its Options
Published on 09/28/2026 at 13:40 | Editorial boerse-global.de
A single unconfirmed overture has reshaped the investment case for Evonik Industries AG almost overnight. BASF confirmed on Friday that it had held exploratory talks with the Essen-based specialty chemicals maker and with the RAG-Stiftung, its anchor shareholder, regarding a possible voluntary public takeover offer for all shares. Evonik acknowledged receipt of a non-binding approach but stressed that no negotiations are currently underway.
The timing is striking. Only days earlier, Evonik had unveiled a sharpened three-year growth strategy anchored by an efficiency programme that will eliminate 3,200 positions worldwide. Now the question hanging over the company is whether it will chart its own course or become part of a new industry heavyweight.
A Double-Digit Week for the Stock
Trading reflected the sudden shift in sentiment. According to media reports, the shares climbed as much as 11% at one point on Friday. The stock ended the session up 7.9% at EUR 19.44, having touched its 52-week high of EUR 20.00 intraday. Measured over seven days, the gain reached 12%, with the price last at EUR 19.49. Reports from the Financial Times, citing insiders, described the move as a merger proposal.
For existing holders, the calculus has changed fundamentally. Where the operational overhaul once dominated the narrative, a potential transaction premium now drives the action. The central decision is whether to lock in recent gains or bet on further upside.
RAG-Stiftung Holds the Decisive Lever
Everything hinges on the ownership structure. The RAG-Stiftung controls roughly 43.8% of Evonik, making its consent indispensable; a combination against the anchor shareholder's wishes is practically unthinkable. The foundation confirmed Friday that BASF had contacted it as well.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Evonik?
Its interests are specific. The foundation funds the so-called eternity costs of German hard-coal mining from the income generated by its assets. Any sale or swap of its stake would therefore need to guarantee reliable long-term returns. As custodian of an industrial legacy in North Rhine-Westphalia, the foundation is also likely to weigh regional considerations. No public signal has yet emerged on whether it would entertain a divestment or contribution of its shares.
Equally unresolved is how Evonik's management would respond to a formal courtship. Since the company is not currently in talks, BASF would have to take the initiative and offer sufficient financial incentives to bring the board to the table. Without movement from either of these two gatekeepers, any merger scenario remains purely hypothetical. According to a Reuters report, no binding offer has reached Evonik to date.
Where the Upside Lies
Should the soundings progress to concrete negotiations, shareholders stand to gain. A voluntary public takeover offer is typically pitched at a noticeable premium to the unaffected average price, and BASF would need to present terms that economically outmatch Evonik's standalone plans and its ongoing cost-cutting.
The operational reset adds ballast to that case. Evonik recently fleshed out the second phase of its transformation programme, branded "Evonik Tailor Made," which envisages cutting 3,200 jobs globally between 2027 and 2029, including roughly 2,150 in Germany. The company is also pushing ahead with the disposal of peripheral activities, with the planned sales of infrastructure company Syneqt GmbH and the C4 chemicals business Oxeno GmbH proceeding on schedule. Executed swiftly, these portfolio moves would allow Evonik to bring a markedly stronger earnings base to the table even in a merger scenario.
There is industrial logic, too. Both groups are grappling with the tough conditions facing the European chemicals sector, above all energy costs and international competitive pressure. Pooling research budgets and global distribution networks would give both sides a stronger negotiating position in world markets. Even without a full merger, the signal of external interest could make the value of Evonik's specialty divisions more visible. Management has already staked out targeted growth fields, including the start of construction on a biotechnology capacity expansion in Slovenská ?up?a, Slovakia, worth around EUR 80 million. A formal bidding contest would accelerate a re-rating of those businesses.
The Risks If Talks Collapse
Against that stands a substantial downside. BASF made clear that the progress and outcome of the soundings are entirely open. Should the talks fizzle out, the takeover premium recently baked into the price would likely drain away quickly.
Attention would then snap back to operational realities. The strategy presented on 22 September lays bare the scale of the restructuring required: the planned elimination of 2,150 jobs in Germany and the closure of the smaller sites in Hamburg and Bitterfeld next year underscore the pressure to repair the business. Skepticism from the analyst community compounds the picture. Morgan Stanley downgraded Evonik from "Overweight" to "Equalweight" on 15 September and cut its price target. If the combination fails, Evonik must prove that the targeted savings can sustainably strengthen earnings power without sacrificing revenue.
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Execution risk looms even if both companies were to reach an agreement in principle. A tie-up of two industry heavyweights would inevitably draw the attention of European competition authorities. Months of review, stringent conditions or an outright veto could weigh on the transaction and block the valuation premium for an extended period.
What to Watch Next
As long as the prospect of a BASF offer underpins the market and the quotation holds its elevated level, takeover speculation will remain the dominant price driver. If that speculation is punctured by a formal rejection from either side, a re-rating on purely operational prospects becomes the likely outcome.
For invested shareholders and newcomers alike, the RAG-Stiftung is the single most important source of signals in the coming weeks. Every utterance from the foundation's orbit will shed light on whether a sale of the stake is conceivable at all. The next concrete catalyst is an official statement from BASF or the RAG-Stiftung on the start or definitive end of formal talks. Details on progress with the Oxeno and Syneqt disposals should also prove direction-setting. Investors would be wise to scan the news flow closely for substantive communications from the company leaderships.
One date is already fixed: on 3 November 2026, Evonik will publish its quarterly report for the third quarter of 2026. That interim scorecard will show how stable the business actually is as the savings programme gets under way.
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