Bayer's Analyst Targets Stretch to a 17-Euro Gulf as the Glyphosate Hearing Calendar Keeps Slipping
Published on 08/13/2026 at 17:52 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The gap between the most cautious and most optimistic Wall Street calls on Bayer has widened to more than €17 — roughly a third of the share price — and the divergence says as much about the unresolved Roundup litigation as it does about the strength of the underlying business.
Jefferies stands alone at the conservative end of the spectrum, reaffirming its "Hold" rating with a price target of €46, a level that sits below where the stock currently trades. The shares were changing hands at €48.02 on Monday, having closed the prior session at €48.14. At the opposite extreme, Goldman Sachs has set its sights on €63.50, with Deutsche Bank Research and UBS slotting in between at €60 and €62 respectively, both maintaining "Buy" recommendations.
What makes the spread so striking is that every house is working from the same set of numbers. Bayer's second-quarter report, published just over a week ago, beat expectations on the top line with revenue of €12.52 billion and adjusted earnings per share of €0.2735. Adjusted EBITDA rose 1.9 percent to €2.14 billion, supported by strength in the crop science division and cost-cutting measures that are also showing up in a stronger quarterly profit at the Indian subsidiary. Management reaffirmed its full-year guidance.
The analytical split, then, comes down to how each firm weighs the risks that remain. The more bullish camp appears to be betting that operational momentum in the agriculture business will carry the day. Jefferies, by contrast, seems to be pricing in the possibility that the legal overhang around glyphosate has not yet been fully discounted.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bayer?
That legal question now has a new date attached to it — or at least a new target. The hearing to approve the multibillion-dollar settlement was postponed again, with a US court setting the next session for September 14. That followed a joint motion from Monsanto and the plaintiffs' side seeking to move the hearing to September 10 or later. Two reschedulings within a matter of weeks have done little to reassure investors that the $7.25 billion deal is on a smooth path to final approval.
The stock's recent trajectory reflects the tension between these two forces. At €48.02, Bayer sits roughly 11 percent below its 52-week high of €53.86, reached in early July. Yet the longer-term picture remains emphatically positive: the shares are up 30 percent since the start of the year and have gained 79 percent over the past twelve months, a remarkable recovery from the November low of €25.78. The current level also stands about 6 percent above the 50-day moving average, suggesting the underlying trend has not broken despite the recent pullback from the €50 mark.
For investors, the calculus is straightforward but the outcome is not. A court approval in September would remove the single biggest overhang on the stock and, combined with the operational tailwind from the second quarter, could justify the more ambitious targets on the Street. Another delay — or worse, a signal that the court has reservations about the settlement terms — would likely vindicate Jefferies' caution and send the shares back toward the more conservative end of the valuation range.
The next concrete milestone is the rescheduled hearing, now penciled in for September 14 after the latest postponement. Until then, Bayer remains a stock caught between two narratives: a business that is demonstrably improving, and a legal saga that has yet to reach its conclusion.
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