Bayer's Legal Momentum Builds as Q3 Looming Clouds the Stock
Published on 09/29/2026 at 15:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Bayer shares slipped 2.4% to EUR 49.52 on Tuesday, leaving the DAX-listed stock 8.1% below its 52-week high, as investors weighed a fresh courtroom victory against a sobering preview of the group's third-quarter figures.
Deutsche Bank Research kept its "Buy" rating on the Leverkusen-based life sciences group with a EUR 60 price target. Analyst Virginie Boucher-Ferte is already looking past the current quarter's headline numbers, forecasting 1.3% year-on-year growth in operating revenue for Q3 while projecting a 10% decline in operating earnings. Bayer has confirmed it will publish the quarterly report, and the guidance arrives at a moment when management is juggling several fronts at once — drug development, balance-sheet repair and a thicket of US litigation.
A Patent Fight Clears Its First Hurdle
One of those legal fronts shifted in Bayer's favor this week. A US federal court in Delaware declined to dismiss the company's damages suit against the makers of the dominant COVID-19 vaccines. Judge William Bryson rejected motions from Pfizer, BioNTech and Moderna to end the case early, pushing the dispute over billions of dollars in licensing claims into a deeper phase of technical review.
The case traces back to a complaint Bayer filed in January 2026 and centers on US Patent 7,741,118, which Monsanto applied for in 1989 and was granted in 2010. The technology was originally designed to stabilize mRNA in crops so plants could better fend off insect pests. Bayer contends that Pfizer, BioNTech and Moderna relied on that same method to preserve the genetic material in their COVID-19 shots, and says the Pfizer-BioNTech pair has acknowledged using such codon optimization in mRNA production. Comirnaty, the vaccine developed by those two partners, generated more than USD 93 billion in revenue.
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The defendants counter that their manufacturing processes differ fundamentally from the patented method, with Moderna additionally arguing the claim describes an unpatentable law of nature. Judge Bryson found those objections insufficiently supported at this stage, noting the defendants had neither proven the patent invalid nor shown their products avoid infringing it. A parallel action in New Jersey targets Johnson & Johnson over similar allegations tied to its vaccine production.
Financing and a Regulatory Tailwind
While the courtroom drama plays out, Bayer has been shoring up its capital structure. Roughly a week ago the group placed EUR 2 billion in new hybrid bonds with a 30-year maturity, lifting the total outstanding volume of such instruments to EUR 6.55 billion. The move is widely seen as a buffer against the balance-sheet strain created by debt servicing and the legal battles consuming management attention in the US.
On the pharmaceutical side, the FDA granted priority review to Lynkuet (elinzanetant) for an additional indication — treating moderate-to-severe hot flashes in women undergoing endocrine therapy for hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. The accelerated designation shortens the agency's review timeline and could open the door to a broader US label.
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Roundup Settlement Still in Limbo
Uncertainty persists on the litigation front that has weighed on Bayer's valuation for years. About two weeks ago, subsidiary Monsanto asked a Missouri judge to approve a proposed class settlement in the Roundup cases worth up to USD 7.25 billion. Plaintiffs' lawyers have come out against the proposal, leaving agreement with the opposing side as the key obstacle. A deal would sharply improve visibility for investors, but it has yet to materialize.
For now, the market's caution reflects a simple calculus: expected declines in third-quarter operating earnings and unresolved legal questions are overshadowing recent pipeline wins. The stock's pre-market level of EUR 50.98 earlier Tuesday — and a 38% gain since the start of the year — suggest investors have not abandoned the recovery story, even as the near-term picture stays murky.
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