Bayer's September Scorecard: A €375 Million Hand-Off, a Third Kerendia Indication, and One Unanswered Question From Missouri
Published on 09/23/2026 at 09:50 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Bayer spent September tending to both ends of its business at once — pruning where it no longer needs to compete, and pushing forward where it does. Yet for all the operational housekeeping, the stock's next meaningful move sits with a judge in Missouri.
The most immediate piece of news concerns Stivarga. Bayer has agreed to hand the cancer drug to Grünenthal, a deal that can generate total proceeds of up to EUR 375 million. That figure is not a flat sum: it combines an upfront payment with success-based milestone payments, meaning Bayer retains a slice of the drug's future earnings potential even after the rights change hands. News of the transaction landed with a mildly positive reception. The shares changed hands at EUR 49.54, a gain of 0.8% on the day.
Shedding Older Assets to Sharpen the Pharma Focus
Offloading mature medicines to specialist partners is a well-worn play in the industry. It frees up administrative and marketing capacity that would otherwise be tied to products past their commercial peak, allowing the company to concentrate resources on higher-margin treatments and newer active ingredients. For Bayer, the Stivarga sale fits squarely into that logic — a deliberate narrowing of the portfolio rather than a retreat.
The pipeline, meanwhile, is doing its part. The FDA granted Kerendia, whose active ingredient is finerenone, a new indication for treating chronic kidney disease associated with type-1 diabetes. It marks the third approved indication for the therapy, a detail that matters more than it might appear at first glance: each additional label expands the addressable patient pool without requiring a fresh round of discovery spending.
The Legal Overhang That Still Sets the Tone
None of this, however, has displaced the US litigation from its position at the top of the investor agenda. Bayer has confirmed that a hearing on the final approval of its sweeping glyphosate settlement was held on 14 September before the Missouri Circuit Court. The agreement provides for payments totaling USD 7.25 billion. A formal ruling has yet to arrive; the court's decision is expected at a later date.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bayer?
The settlement, struck by Bayer subsidiary Monsanto in February, is designed to resolve both pending and future claims tied to non-Hodgkin lymphoma. If it clears the court in a durable, legally secure form, a burden that has weighed on the company for years would lift. That prospect is already being priced in gradually. At EUR 49.53, the stock has climbed 34% since the start of the year.
Whether that run holds depends heavily on whether the Missouri court confirms the agreement without imposing serious conditions. Should unquantifiable liability risks persist, the valuation of the agriculture and pharmaceutical group would remain structurally capped.
A Supreme Court Ruling Adds a Layer of Support
There is a legal tailwind worth factoring in. On 25 June, the US Supreme Court ruled 7-2 in the Durnell case that federal law under FIFRA preempts state-level failure-to-warn claims where the EPA has granted approval. That precedent strengthens the broader argument that the settlement framework rests on solid ground.
Strip away the shadow of US litigation and the operating picture comes back into focus. In the second quarter of 2026, Bayer generated revenue of EUR 10.87 billion and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 2.14 billion. Crop Science stood out, with its result rising 30.2%. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance for adjusted EBITDA of EUR 9.6 billion to EUR 10.1 billion and core earnings per share of EUR 4.30 to EUR 4.90. Legal relief could open the path back toward the 52-week high of EUR 53.86.
What a Rejection Would Unlock
The downside case is straightforward: the Missouri court declines final approval or demands revisions. If the settlement is not confirmed in its current form, pending and future claims remain an unresolved financial exposure, and uncertainty over the actual cash outflow for claimant compensation would resurface immediately.
Investor confidence would take a hit. To be sure, the first quarter of 2026 already showed solid underlying momentum, with currency- and portfolio-adjusted revenue up 4.1% to EUR 13.405 billion. Even so, recurring court proceedings would absorb management attention and weigh on valuation multiples. Without the hoped-for legal closure, profits from the agricultural business risk being neutralized by ongoing legal costs and potential damages awards.
Two Clocks, One Stock
The battle lines are now clearly drawn. As long as expectations of a favorable outcome in Missouri underpin sentiment, the stock's upward trend stays intact. If the court rejects the agreement, the optimism of recent months could fade quickly.
The next concrete catalyst is the announcement of the ruling on the class-action settlement before the Missouri Circuit Court. Investors face a choice: take the chance on a lasting re-rating, or sidestep the residual risk of a drawn-out legal limbo. Until that decision lands, the share price remains tethered to news flowing out of the United States.
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