Bayer Wins Over Two Brokerages as Litigation Clouds and a Chinese Approval Reshape the Story
Published on 11/06/2026 at 14:21 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Bayer's third-quarter report has triggered a split verdict on Wall Street, with two major brokerages lifting their price targets for markedly different reasons — one betting on the pharmaceutical pipeline, the other keeping its powder dry until the Roundup litigation clears.
Goldman Sachs raised its target to EUR 66 from EUR 63.50 on Wednesday and reiterated its "Buy" rating, pointing to the growth prospects of the drug division following the quarterly figures. Jefferies, by contrast, moved its target up to EUR 48.50 from EUR 46 but stayed on the sidelines with a Hold recommendation. Analyst Michael Leuchten wants to see a broader settlement in the Roundup litigation before turning more constructive.
A quarter that beat the bar
The numbers behind the debate landed on Tuesday. Bayer posted group revenue of EUR 10.053 billion for the third quarter of 2026 and EBITDA before special items of EUR 1.615 billion, with Nubeqa and Kerendia named as the main growth engines. The company also lifted its full-year guidance for EBITDA before special items to EUR 9.8–10.3 billion, up from a previous range of EUR 9.6–10.1 billion — a EUR 200 million bump at the midpoint.
Free cash flow guidance was improved as well, though it remains in negative territory at minus EUR 1.5 billion to minus EUR 0.5 billion. Net debt fell by EUR 2.6 billion from the end of June to EUR 31 billion, with management targeting EUR 28–29 billion by year-end.
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The strength is unevenly spread. Pharma revenue climbed 8% in the quarter, but sales at Crop Science and Consumer Health stagnated. Group net loss came in at EUR 672 million, dragged down by write-downs and special charges.
China nod adds a fresh catalyst
A day after the results, Bayer announced that Sevabertinib had won approval in China as a first-line treatment for adults with advanced HER2-mutated non-small cell lung cancer. The green light gives the pharma story another leg just as analysts are recalibrating their models.
Leuchten has adjusted his forecasts following the quarterly release, though his estimates sit at the lower end of the company's own guidance range for the current year — a cautious stance within the framework Bayer has set.
The legal overhang remains the swing factor
For Jefferies, the decisive impulse is a comprehensive resolution of the Roundup litigation. Leuchten is watching the signing of the glyphosate settlement and its subsequent court approval, and he sees the Aretino ruling as a source of lingering uncertainty. Media reports suggest a deal is hoped for before Christmas, though that is an expectation rather than a confirmed deadline.
Bayer did score a courtroom win on 30 October, when a Missouri court ruled unanimously in favor of subsidiary Monsanto — the first Roundup glyphosate trial since the US Supreme Court's decision, according to the company.
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On the question of restructuring, both the analyst and the chief executive are aligned in their caution. Leuchten believes a spin-off of Crop Science remains hampered by balance-sheet constraints and does not expect a breakup for now. CEO Bill Anderson said on Tuesday, according to Reuters, that a group split is not on the agenda, with the focus instead on innovation and debt reduction.
The higher targets acknowledge improved operating prospects. Whether that is enough to turn Hold into Buy hinges, for now, on a settlement that has yet to be signed.
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