Berenberg Raises SAP Target to €240 as Cloud Backlog Outpaces Revenue — With a Munich Patent Ruling Still in the Background
Published on 10/22/2026 at 11:41 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Berenberg lifted its price target on SAP from €205 to €240 on Wednesday, keeping its buy rating intact, a day after the software group's quarterly figures landed. The move makes Berenberg one of the more bullish voices on the stock — but it is far from a unanimous verdict across the analyst community.
JPMorgan, by contrast, held SAP at "Neutral" with a €175 target the same day. A third research house reaffirmed its buy recommendation with a €220 price objective. The divergence matters for investors: a confirmed buy rating does not automatically mean a higher valuation mark, and the quarterly results have not produced a uniform wave of upgrades. Berenberg had already recommended SAP as a buy before the results; what changed is its assessment of the upside potential, not the underlying call.
Cloud Bookings Grow Faster Than Cloud Revenue
The operating backdrop for the re-rating is a cloud business that is expanding on both counts. In the third quarter of 2026, SAP's cloud revenue rose 26% to €6.67bn. The Current Cloud Backlog — the contracted business already secured but not yet recognised as revenue — climbed 28% to €24.1bn, growing faster than realised cloud sales.
That gap is the detail the market has latched onto. Revenue reflects activity already booked; the backlog points to the earnings base still to come. Group-level figures reinforced the picture: total revenue reached €10.27bn, up 13%, while the Non-IFRS operating result advanced 18% to €3.03bn.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Revenue Guidance at the Top, Profit Range Untouched
SAP's outlook carries a distinction that deserves attention. The company expects both cloud revenue and combined cloud-and-software revenue to land at the upper end of their existing guidance ranges. No corresponding lift was issued for the profit range: the 2026 Non-IFRS operating profit forecast stays at €11.8bn to €12.2bn.
Greater confidence on the top line, in other words, has not been matched by a raised earnings target. The positive share-price reaction — the stock gained 2.0% on Tuesday, a move dpa-AFX attributed to the strong cloud business and the more optimistic outlook — reflects the revenue side of that equation.
A Courtroom Setback, Narrowly Defined
Running counter to the upbeat operating narrative is a patent ruling. On Monday, reports emerged that the Munich Regional Court I (Landgericht MĂĽnchen I) had enjoined a specific function of Signavio Process Intelligence in Germany, acting on a patent claim brought by Celonis. SAP said it has lodged an appeal.
The scope of the decision is what matters here. It concerns one function of one product in one market — not SAP's offering as a whole — and the appeal does not suspend the injunction. The ruling is a legal risk embedded in the product portfolio, not a blanket constraint on the business, and it should be weighed separately from the demand picture painted by the quarterly numbers.
For investors, the two threads pull in different directions but do not cancel each other out. Berenberg's higher target is a positive valuation signal, though not an industry-wide consensus on how much of the operating momentum is already priced in. The Signavio case remains a discrete legal overhang, its reach limited to a single function. And the cloud growth, however strong, arrived alongside an unchanged profit range — three separate yardsticks, each telling its own part of the story.
Ad
SAP Stock: New Analysis - 22 October
Fresh SAP information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
