Berkshire's November Test: An Unverified Alphabet Loss, a Dated Analyst Call and One Confirmed Trade
Published on 11/03/2026 at 17:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Berkshire Hathaway's next real checkpoint is its third-quarter report, expected on 7 November 2026 according to media reports — a date the company itself has not confirmed. Until those figures land, investors are left sorting three very different kinds of information: a paper loss that has never been verified, a bullish analyst note that predates the current debate, and a single disclosed transaction that is beyond dispute.
Start with the Alphabet stake, which has drawn fresh scrutiny after Barron's used the holding as a hook to question Berkshire's stock-picking. Berkshire held 106 million Alphabet shares as of 30 June. Following the recent slide, that block was worth roughly $29.47 billion yesterday, down from a peak above $37 billion at points in June. What that decline does not prove is a loss against cost. To establish one, you would need the average price Berkshire paid across all its purchases — and that figure has never been disclosed.
Barron's estimates the average cost at probably more than $300 per share, possibly close to $320. On that basis a book loss is plausible, but an estimate is not a confirmed accounting of the actual outlay. Berkshire built the position in several buying phases, so the success of the whole investment cannot be read off the price of any single transaction — and a paper loss is not the same thing as a realized loss on a sale.
The debate was triggered by Alphabet's third-quarter 2026 numbers. Earnings per share came in at $2.12, against $2.87 in the year-earlier quarter, while analysts had looked for around $3. The miss did not come with a weaker operating result: operating profit climbed 30% year on year to $40.58 billion. Charges tied to equity holdings and heavy investment complicate any read on earnings quality. Free cash flow stood at minus $9 billion, which Alphabet attributed to spending on artificial intelligence. For Berkshire, two trends therefore run side by side — the operating business of its holding is growing, while the build-out of AI infrastructure soaks up substantial capital. The share-price decline weighs on the value of the stake either way.
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On 22 October, UBS lifted its Berkshire price target to $628 from $604 and reaffirmed its buy call, with analyst Brian Meredith behind the note. That endorsement, however, was issued before today's discussion of possible Alphabet losses — and it is a valuation anchor with a date on it, not a documented trigger for anything that followed. Timing matters on the balance sheet too: price declines after the end of September should only surface in the fourth-quarter figures.
The stock gained 2.2% yesterday, and no company-specific catalyst has been established for the move. It came in a session with a mixed tape: the equal-weighted S&P 500 advanced, according to a report from the news agency AP, even as large technology names came under pressure. Berkshire's rise fits that backdrop, in which the fortunes of big tech did not dictate the whole market. That is context, not a verified explanation for the demand — and a single trading session says nothing about whether investors have already signed off on the coming results.
One item is fully documented. A regulatory filing dated 27 October shows Berkshire Hathaway and Warren E. Buffett jointly reporting the sale of 382,563 DaVita shares at $180.4305 apiece. The SEC filing names Berkshire subsidiaries and pension plans as the holders of the shares in question. It evidences a concrete transaction, but it does not account for Berkshire's later share-price gain.
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The distinction is the one that matters for anyone holding the stock: the DaVita sale is on the record, the UBS target is a forecast, and the November report is the next occasion to test the price action against actual numbers. Nothing in yesterday's advance can be taken as a preview of what those figures will contain.
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