Berlin's Commerzbank Exit Signals a New Phase in UniCredit's Takeover Push
Published on 08/19/2026 at 04:21 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The German government's long-held resistance to a full UniCredit takeover of Commerzbank appears to be softening. According to a Bloomberg report on Tuesday, senior officials in Berlin have indicated a willingness to discuss selling the state's 12.7 percent stake — but only if the two lenders can first reach agreement on strategy and the bank's future direction.
Such a deal would lift UniCredit's position from roughly 47.6 percent to above 60 percent, handing the Italian lender effective control. The political thaw marks a decisive shift from the summer, when UniCredit's takeover offer, which expired in July, drew only lukewarm support. Just 2.7 percent of independent institutional and retail investors tendered their shares, though UniCredit still accumulated a capital stake of approximately 47.6 percent — or just under 49.65 percent of voting rights — through the acceptance of 17.6 percent of shares.
A New Tone From Both Sides
Behind the scenes, the two banks have already begun talking. UniCredit chief Andrea Orcel and Commerzbank CEO Bettina Orlopp held their first formal discussions in August, covering everything from accounting treatment and legal hurdles to risk management. Commerzbank's supervisory board chairman Jens Weidmann acknowledged as early as late July that the balance of power was clear, signaling a willingness to engage constructively.
Orlopp went further on Sunday, using the release of half-year results to officially express openness to "constructive talks" with UniCredit, stressing the need to create value for shareholders — a notable departure from the bank's earlier defensive posture. Orcel, for his part, reiterated on Monday his ambition to secure operational control of Commerzbank by the fourth quarter of 2026.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
Strong Numbers Strengthen the Negotiating Hand
Commerzbank enters these discussions from a position of financial strength. The lender posted record second-quarter results roughly two weeks ago, with net profit surging 94 percent to EUR 898 million — nearly double the EUR 463 million reported in the same period a year earlier. First-half earnings climbed 40 percent to EUR 1.81 billion.
The market has taken notice: the shares have gained 1.2 percent since the earnings release. Management confirmed its full-year target of at least EUR 3.4 billion in net profit and announced share buybacks of up to EUR 1.2 billion, with a projected dividend yield of 4.03 percent for 2026. Deutsche Bank analyst Benjamin Goy reaffirmed his buy rating on August 7 with a price target of EUR 42.00, citing the strong quarter.
In a separate operational move, Commerzbank is informing customers about a shift in its credit card offering, gradually transitioning from Mastercard to Visa as its payment partner.
The Regulatory Clock Is Ticking
The formal approval process is now in motion. The European Central Bank received UniCredit's application after Germany's financial regulator BaFin deemed it complete and forwarded it in early August. The ECB has 60 working days to reach a final decision, extendable by up to 20 additional days — pushing a ruling into the autumn, with expectations pointing to the second half of October at the earliest.
Should Berlin sell its stake, the deal would carry added weight in that review process. The share price, which closed Tuesday at EUR 39.03, down 1.1 percent, has been consolidating since the ECB signaled a preliminary inclination to approve the acquisition last Sunday. Over seven trading days, the stock is down 0.8 percent, remaining roughly 2.7 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 40.11 reached just days ago, though still comfortably above its moving averages.
For investors, the picture is becoming clearer: a financially reinvigorated Commerzbank, a regulatory timeline stretching into October, and now political movement in Berlin. Whether the government ultimately parts with its stake will hinge on the assurances UniCredit offers on jobs, locations, and the bank's strategic direction. The next potential signal could come on September 1, when Commerzbank is scheduled to appear at the ODDO BHF Corporate Conference in Frankfurt.
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