Bitcoin Braces for $11 Billion Options Expiry as Fed's Hawkish Hold and Steady ETF Inflows Pull in Opposite Directions
Published on 10/29/2026 at 13:12 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Bitcoin is trading near $80,181, hovering just above the closely watched $80,000 threshold, as investors weigh two competing forces: a looming options event that will remove a large slice of the derivatives market, and a Federal Reserve decision that landed with a more restrictive tone than its unchanged rate would suggest.
A Third of Deribit's Book Comes Due
Roughly $11 billion worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire tomorrow, according to Bloomberg — a tranche equivalent to about one-third of all outstanding Bitcoin options on Deribit. The sheer size of the expiry gives traders an extra reference point alongside the Fed's rate decision, though the volume of contracts falling due on its own says nothing definitive about direction. A large expiry is not, by itself, an argument for either a rally or a selloff.
The distinction matters: the expiry is still ahead, while the monetary-policy headwind has already made itself felt in the price.
A Hold That Didn't Feel Like One
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate in the 3.75% to 4.00% range, according to media reports. Yet market participants read the decision as restrictive rather than neutral. The vote split ten to two, with both dissenters pushing for a quarter-point increase — not a cut. Their votes pointed toward further tightening, not easing.
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That nuance is central for Bitcoin: the pause did not come with a unified signal of steady rates. The call for a hike instead reinforced the restrictive outlook, and media reports noted that Bitcoin came under pressure following the announcement.
Fund Flows Keep Running the Other Way
Demand-side data paints a friendlier picture. US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in net inflows of $137.3 million yesterday, media reports said — the third consecutive trading day of positive flows. BlackRock dominated the haul, with its IBIT taking in $136 million, while Bitwise's BITB accounted for $1.3 million.
Those inflows show continued appetite despite the difficult policy backdrop, but they are no proof that the broader Bitcoin market has regained strength. Ahead of tomorrow's expiry, two divergent signals sit side by side: persistent fund inflows and a restrictive rate outlook.
Fidelity Spots the Makings of a Floor
Separately, Fidelity's signal report, published yesterday, points to possible bottoming signs. The firm cites a recovery in unrealized profits and improved price momentum, along with a widely followed mining indicator that argues for stabilization. Even so, miners shifting into the AI data-center business complicates how that signal should be read. The evidence for a floor is building — but it does not amount to a confirmed trend reversal.
Fidelity's NUPL metric climbed from 0.09 at the end of the second quarter of 2026 to 0.36 at the close of the third quarter, a marked improvement over the prior quarter-end. The firm also flags positive momentum dating from August 24, meaning its bottoming thesis rests on more than a single gauge; price action and positioning relative to key trendlines feed into the picture as well. In September, Bitcoin cleared its 50- and 200-day moving averages, the report noted, and Fidelity puts inflows into exchange-traded spot Bitcoin products at $6.4 billion. The firm's historical comparisons add further support for its optimistic read, though they remain backward-looking and no guarantee of future results.
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The Mining Signal and Its Caveats
Meanwhile, the recovery in the so-called Hash Ribbon signal continues. Bitcoin Magazine dates its start to August 26. The indicator tracks the evolution of computing power across the Bitcoin network and is used to gauge stress and recovery phases among miners. According to Bitcoin Magazine, Bitcoin was higher a year later following six of seven previous recoveries — a historical record that backs the bottoming thesis but does not substitute for an examination of current conditions.
That is precisely where the limitation lies. Higher network hash rate does not by itself prove better mining economics, and operators are partly leaving the business for AI data centers. Such strategic decisions can alter the meaning of a signal investors associate with a classic mining shakeout. CoinShares, in a September 15 report, put the hash rate slated for planned exit by listed miners at more than 35 EH/s, with IREN planning its departure by December 31. Announced shutdowns, however, do not mean capacity has already come off the grid.
For investors, the picture is layered: Fidelity's metrics and the Hash Ribbon signal offer arguments for stabilization, while miners' changing business decisions limit how much weight historical comparisons can bear. A possible bottom, in other words, is a reasoned assessment — not a secured launchpad for the next leg up.
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